Schemes aiming to bring solar power from the Sahara to Europe have been around for years but could make more sense in today’s energy landscape
DESERT DISAPPOINTMENT
With huge resource potential, exporting clean power from the Sahara has long been considered but yet become a reality HYDROGEN HOPES
Energy security concerns in Europe are spurring new interest in the region and hydrogen is emerging as a promising energy vector KEY QUOTE
Now that Europe needs low-cost alternatives to insecure, expensive Russian energy, the deserts of North Africa look very appealing again
Winter is always a time of concern for European grid operators. Cold snaps can stress the energy system as end-users ramp up gas and electricity consumption to stay warm. In recent years, winter misgivings have been exacerbated by the likelihood of what Germans call “Dunkelflaute”—dark, windless periods that limit wind and solar production for up to around 300 hours a year, particularly between November and January. These spells, which grid operators have viewed nervously amid rising shares of wind and solar generation on Europe’s energy systems, have traditionally been overcome by firing up gas plants. In the winter of 2022-2023, however, Europe’s erstwhile main natural gas supplier, Russia, is on the wrong side of an increasingly entrenched conflict in Ukraine. Concerns over the availability of Russian gas have galvanised European lawmakers into sourcing gas reserves from the Middle East and North America—and hastening the development of alternative energy carriers. A rush to acquire supplies ahead of the winter saw European Union gas stores more than 90% full at the start of December 2022, well above the seasonal average for the four years previous. SOUTHERN COMFORT
Critics worry this knee-jerk reaction to the crisis in Ukraine risks locking Europe into natural gas investments that will delay the energy transition. Looking elsewhere to replace Russia’s fossil fuel imports Europe’s answer might not be too far away. Russia’s border with Europe is about 1900 kilometres from Brussels as the crow flies, yet less than 1600 kilometres south of the European capital lies the Sahara Desert, potentially the biggest source of renewable energy in the world. The Sahara’s nine million square kilometres of land are said to have an annual solar power potential of 22 billion gigawatt-hours, more than 7000 times what Europe consumes in electricity a year. The desert also has enough wind resource to power Europe more than three times over, according to Sahara Wind, a project developer. The idea of harvesting energy from beyond Europe’s southern border dates back at least to the 1920s, when German architect Herman Sörgel dreamed of damming the Mediterranean and using it as a hydropower project named Atlantropa. GAS TRADING
More recently, North Africa has become an important exporter of natural gas to Europe. Some of this is via liquified natural gas shipments and some via gas pipelines, three of which are operating today: the Transmed pipeline connects Algeria and Sicily, Medgaz goes from Algeria to Spain and Greenstream links Libya also with Sicily. The scale of fossil fuel exports from North Africa to Europe dwarfs renewable energy exchange capacity, which is limited to two 700-megawatt electricity interconnections between Spain and Morocco. These interconnectors, plus a third potentially being commissioned before 2026, are the only way clean electricity can travel between the two continents. 
DESERTEC’S DIFFICULTIES
Other European attempts to tap into North Africa’s renewable energy potential have so far been fruitless. The most notable of these was Desertec, a scheme hatched in the 2000s by disciples of the Club of Rome, a non-profit group made up of scientists, lawmakers and business leaders. Leaning heavily on German expertise, Desertec aimed to build massive solar plants in the Sahara to provide electricity for European markets. The plan attracted a consortium of industrial players keen to build the plants, which planned to use concentrated solar power (CSP) technology. The members of the Desertec industrial initiative (Dii) included energy industry giants such as ABB, ACWA Power and Enel Green Power. Yet Dii’s heavyweights failed to get a single Desertec project off the ground. This was partly due to technical limitations. CSP, which was competitive with early photovoltaic (PV) solar at the start of the 2010s, began to look expensive on a project-by-project basis as Chinese module manufacturers ramped up production and brought down the cost of PV. Although CSP was still attractive on a power system basis, because of the low cost of its thermal storage compared to batteries, power markets were not structured to reward the plants. REGIONAL EVALUATION
Meanwhile, Europe was becoming more protectionist because of the 2009 European debt crisis, says Jonathan Walters, an advisor on renewable energy financing in North Africa at the time. European nations “therefore used discriminatory subsidies to support only producers based in Europe itself,” he says. “Then the [2011] Arab Spring happened, so governments on the other side of the Mediterranean were preoccupied with other things. Those two things coincided and became mutually reinforcing and the idea just went off the boil.” Fast forward a decade and experts are re-evaluating Saharan energy projects, with some saying the time could now be right to make the schemes a reality. The Ukrainian crisis provides one reason. Not only is the conflict forcing Europe to seek new, preferably low-carbon, energy sources, but also leading to a reconsideration of who might be trusted for supplies. TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS
From a clean energy investment perspective, North African nations are still viewed with caution but those that seemed risky in 2021 might come across as more dependable compared to Russia in 2023. “Now that Europe needs low-cost alternatives to insecure, expensive Russian energy, the deserts of North Africa look very appealing again,” Walters says. Meanwhile, technology has moved on considerably in the last decade. Solar PV and wind energy are now the cheapest forms of electricity generation in many parts of the world and could achieve even lower prices in the resource-rich Sahara. There have also been advances in high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cabling, which can allow large volumes of electricity to be transported across long distances with lower losses.
LACK OF CONCENTRATION
The Desertec consortium failed to get a single project off the ground
BOLD PLANS
The technology is now so mature that one UK-based company, Xlinks, is planning to use it to import wind and solar energy from Morocco direct to the UK, running an interconnector around the Iberian Peninsula and the French coast to join the grid in southwest England. Xlinks wants to build 7 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV and 3.5 GW of wind generation, supported by 20 gigawatt-hours of battery storage, at a site in Morocco’s Guelmin-Oued Noun region, then link it to the UK with the 3800-kilometre HVDC cable. “In the wake of the European energy crisis, there is a greater commitment to meet net zero and provide energy security,” says Abby Hockman of Xlinks. “It is becoming clear that the UK and wider world need diverse sources of reliable, affordable clean power.” The venture, which Xlinks says could supply 8% of Britain’s electricity, is ambitious but not unrealistically so. The main stumbling block it faces is UK politics, with the country’s 2022 prime ministerial exchanges hampering progress in securing a government contract for difference that is key to financing the project. REMAINING CHALLENGES
In general, though, when it comes to producing renewable energy in North Africa and getting it to Europe, there are no technical challenges, says Prem Mahi of Mott MacDonald, a global engineering consultancy. Solar, wind and HVDC are “all proven technologies, operating at the scale we’re looking for,” he says. “The challenges are commercial and regulatory: the payment structure, planning permission [and] export licences.” Another issue is whether European developers in North Africa will have regulatory certainty, Mahi says. “Based on our own experience, Morocco’s OK,” he says. “Tunisia: a little bit of a question mark. Algeria: a hundred question marks.” This assessment might seem odd given that Algeria kept up gas flows to Spain throughout 2022 despite a diplomatic spat over relations with Morocco, but gas and renewables carry different risks for developers, says Mahi. Gas is a tradeable commodity that can be sold on global markets, making it a favoured asset for state-owned utilities. INTERCONNECTION PATHWAYS
Renewable projects, on the other hand, are usually developed by independent power producers with offtake agreements that depend on local conditions. This could make Algeria and Tunisia poor candidates for project development, Mahi says. “I don’t see any issue with Morocco and Egypt. In Morocco, you’ve got European utilities like EDF. You’ve got Japanese operating projects in Egypt.” Renewable energy projects built in these places would still need to deliver electricity to export markets in Europe, which would mean building new interconnectors over and above those linking Morocco and Spain. Aside from Xlinks, Mott MacDonald has identified three potential interconnection routes. The shortest is Morocco to Gibraltar. Another route is Tunisia to Italy, which has been looked at for gas exports. A third option is to send renewable electricity from Morocco to Portugal. This route has the advantage of potentially delivering clean power to one of a couple of major green hydrogen hubs set to emerge in Europe. 
HYDROGEN HOPES
Portugal could play a key role in green hydrogen production, powering electrolysers with clean energy imported from Morocco and floating offshore wind platforms in the Atlantic. Green hydrogen was not part of Desertec’s plans because there was little indication at the time of the key role hydrogen could play in global decarbonisation. Today, few major energy infrastructure projects would ignore the potential of hydrogen either as a source of demand for renewable electricity or as a low-carbon fuel to plug gaps in wind and solar generation. Green hydrogen could be produced in Europe using renewable electricity generated in the Sahara—or it could be made in the desert and then exported in liquid form or as ammonia. Both options are under study, says Mahi. “We are working on or in discussion over proposals for interconnectors and ammonia,” he says. TRADEABLE COMMODITY
Experts including Mahi believe the latter might be more viable than building interconnectors. “The beauty of ammonia is you don’t depend on any particular market,” Mahi says. “With an interconnector, you’re stuck, but with ammonia, it’s a tradeable commodity—you can go to the highest bidder. I think that’s a better route than interconnectors.” Some developers seem to agree. Total Eren, an independent power producer linked to French oil and gas group TotalEnergies, is working with Africa-focused developer Chariot Transitional Energy on a green hydrogen project in Mauritania, west Africa. The two companies hope to install up to 10 GW of electrolyser capacity, powered by wind and solar. Chariot, which is also looking at green hydrogen projects in Morocco, signed a framework agreement with the government of Mauritania in May 2022 and is expected to complete feasibility studies with Total Eren in the next two years. “Green hydrogen produced in Mauritania could be exported globally,” says Solange Petit de Bantel of Total Eren. “Proximity to Europe is a key asset for Mauritania regarding export perspectives.” TAKING OFF
Even if the project does not go ahead, there is high confidence that export-focused hydrogen centres will be developed elsewhere in North Africa. “I think hydrogen/ammonia will take off, and probably [within] four to five years,” says Mahi at Mott MacDonald. David Sanders, of PA Consulting, agrees. “We have been working on green ammonia production in North Africa,” he says. “Exporting green hydrogen in the form of ammonia could be a game-changer, especially if the end-use application is for ammonia.” Turning ammonia back into hydrogen would involve a “non-trivial cost and hassle,” he adds. Another cost that would have to be considered for green hydrogen production in North Africa is the need for desalination plants to provide water for electrolysis. Desalination plants are costly to build and require significant amounts of energy for operation. COST COMPETITIVENESS
Such costs are easily compensated for by the low price of renewable energy that could be generated in the Sahara, however. Xlinks is expecting to produce electricity from its Moroccan plant at a cost of just $12 per megawatt-hour, which is cheaper than any solar project to date. Sanders believes such low-cost generation would be better used for electrolysis than interconnections. “Projects seeking to import green power from North Africa to Europe, such as Xlinks, face some of the same challenges as Desertec,” he says. “Green hydrogen can be imported as a liquid, as ammonia, or via liquid organic hydrogen carriers. There are still technological challenges, but there is a reasonable expectation that these may be overcome within this decade.” •
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Jason Deign