Governments are setting ambitious targets for the use of synthetic fuels in the aviation sector. But clarity is still needed before the industry can step up to meet these objectives, says Elena Scaltritti from Topsoe
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of FORESIGHT Climate & Energy
Recent policy changes mean sustainable aviation fuels will become a reality within the sector’s decarbonisation efforts
Over 21 gigatons of CO2. This is the amount of CO2 emissions that airlines expect to abate between now and 2050, noting that demand for aviation is likely to double in this time period. While today, emissions currently account for 3% of global CO2, this figure is set to grow and in a decarbonising world, so flying under the radar is not an option.
Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF)—low-carbon fuels powered by alternative sources ranging from agricultural waste to carbon captured from the air—are a viable solution to ensure the flight industry can continuously deliver benefits to society in an environmentally sound way.
Fully compatible with existing aircraft and fueling infrastructure, they can help airlines cut their emissions by up to 90% in the case of renewable fuels and even 100% for e-jet fuels. Yet, while SAFs are the most promising pathway to decarbonising air travel, they currently make up only 0.1% of all jet fuel used.
LIFT OFF
This is about to change dramatically. In the European Union, the Commission is working on several proposals that will significantly boost the production and uptake of SAFs.
As part of the “Fit for 55” package presented in July 2021, the ReFuelEU proposal includes a blending mandate imposed on aviation fuel suppliers to ensure that all aviation fuel supplied to aircraft operators at EU airports contains a minimum share of SAFs.
Starting with 2% in 2025, this share will increase over time and eventually reach 63% in 2050. Individual European countries are also taking decisive action. In January 2022, the Danish government announced that all domestic flights will use sustainable aviation fuel by 2030.
TURBO BOOST
The biggest revolution, though, is coming from the United States where the Biden administration has set the record target of three billion gallons of domestically produced SAFs by 2030.
The newly adopted Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) introduces further monetary incentives to upscale the production and blending of SAFs into regular jet fuels in US airports. The combination of tax credits and competitive grant programmes are expected to have a significant impact: The International Air Transport Association projects a 50-fold increase in global SAFs production by 2025 as a result.
The evidence is clear and the foundations are being built. The impetus now is on representatives from businesses, governments, the aviation industry and technology providers to discuss the massive implications of these initiatives.
From a commercial side, we still need the dialogue with the political side to have full clarity and to assess the implication of the regulations—for instance, the IRA and REPowerEU—and then to action the actual commercial scale production to get to the finish line.
With the political tailwind we already see, we believe that COP27 can be the catalyst to further this transition. COP27 is a great forum for discussions between key industrial and political stakeholders. A series of sessions are dedicated to discussions on scaling up production and implementation of SAF and we are eager to see this transition take off. •
If you have a thoughtful response to the opinions expressed here or if you have an idea for a thought leadership article regarding an aspect of the global energy transition, please send a short pitch of 200 words outlining your thoughts and credentials to: opinion@foresightdk.com
Aviation has connected people and cities from around the Earth, but it has also made our planet warmer. In this episode, we will find out which carrots and sticks are needed to decarbonise air transport
Brexit, by excluding the UK from Europe’s carbon emissions trading system, has stripped British industry of the value of its carbon credits. Rescue options being considered by the UK government include linking back to the EU market, but also taking the risk of joining an immature multinational carbon trade cooperation
Shifting some of Europe’s transport needs to the rails can contribute to the energy transition. But complicated and differing cross-border regulations and carbon-intensive power mixes are minimising the rail sector’s impact
Voluntary carbon offset schemes could significantly help attempts to cut greenhouse gas emissions if their effectiveness can be proven
Energy losses in the production process contribute to making hydrogen produced with renewable energy expensive. Companies and researchers are working to improve the efficiency of electrolyser technology and scale it up, bringing down the green hydrogen price tag at the same time
As emissions from global aviation rise, companies are beginning to look closely at the idea of using electric planes for short-haul flights as a potential solution
As policy makers grapple with the problem of how to decarbonise the transport sector, biofuels remain mired in controversy
Leave a Reply