Puerto Rico is the third island explored by FORESIGHT to see how islands are taking up the challenge of the energy transition. Read part one on Danish island Bornholm and part two on Hawaii
The two massive hurricanes that decimated Puerto Rico in the autumn of 2017 managed something that was unthinkable in the developed world, knocking out power to millions of people for months on end. The ongoing lack of electricity has crippled the economy, contributing to a mass exodus from the island and a sharp increase in suicides. In terms of energy, the disaster may spur fundamental change with solar and storage taking the place of antiquated oil generators as the basis for a rebuilt Puerto Rican power system. But ongoing political and financial chaos, combined with a recalcitrant utility, make any outcome uncertain. The damage to Puerto Rico came in two punches. Hurricane Irma on September 7, 2017 was one of the most powerful storms ever recorded over the Atlantic Ocean. The 650-mile wide storm, which passed to the north of the island, packed winds exceeding 175 miles per hour (282/kMh), killed three people and knocked out power to one million customers. Hurricane Maria, two weeks later, was a direct hit, bringing winds of over 150 mph and dumping a massive 36 inches of rain (90 cms) in a single day. With many of the island’s power lines, substations and generators destroyed or damaged, power was knocked out for most of the island’s 3.4 million inhabitants for months. It took over six months to restore power to most of the island, although continuing outages show that the grid is still fragile seven months later.
Rebuild better?
The hurricane struck what was already a financially troubled island, with both the government and the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) filing for bankruptcy last year. The island’s governor Ricardo Rossello is now calling for dramatic action to update the power system with greater resilience to hurricanes, lower costs and fewer emissions, but the path will not be simple. Puerto Rico’s power system had a number of flaws and inefficiencies before it was damaged. The island gets two-thirds of its power from oil, burned in inefficient, decades-old power stations that do not meet air quality laws. And while most people, industry and power demand is on the north-east coast, in and around the capital San Juan, most of the large power plants are on the southern shore, built to serve factories that are long gone. As a result, vulnerable power lines run over mountainous terrain, making them easy targets for storms. New York, with a large population of Puerto Ricans, has become the mainland hub for aid to the island. In December 2017, a coalition of utilities, consultants and national laboratories, convened by New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, released “Rebuild Better,” a report on “reimagining and strengthening” the power grid of Puerto Rico. It methodically lays out $17.6 billion of repairs, aimed largely at rebuilding the existing transmission and distribution grid with stronger materials. It is weak on fundamental changes to address chronic problems, says Cathy Kunkel, an analyst with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). “The report pays attention to renewables, but if you read it closely it advocates for the same build-out that PREPA wanted in its 2015 integrated resource plan.” In that plan, PREPA proposed retiring 1100 MW of older fossil fuel facilities, shifting to newer gas turbines and hitting 20% renewables by 2035. The newer gas generators, running on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), would provide greater flexibility for integrating more wind and solar. The biggest part of the plan was the utility’s desire to convert the 1200 MW Aguirre power plant, a 47-year-old steam plant that runs on oil, to LNG, with a new floating LNG import terminal on the southern shore. That plan was rejected by the government agency that regulates the energy industry in Puerto Rico, says Kunkel. “The [Energy] Commission said there was no economic justification for the Aguirre project and wanted PREPA to do more efficiency and renewables.” IEEFA has called the Aguirre plan “unbankable” and warned that it could raise electricity prices by 35%. But the “Rebuild Better” report glosses over these concerns. “Per input from PREPA, the decision has already been made as a matter of public policy to pursue the Aguirre offshore gas port floating storage and re-gasification unit option,” it states. “That flies in the face of what the commission said,” according to Kunkel. She disputes the suggestion that Aguirre was “settled as a matter of policy.” IEEFA and the Puerto Rico Institute of Competitiveness and Sustainable Economy (ICSE) released their own plan on March 1, 2018 calling for 50% renewables by 2035 and 100% by 2050. They emphasised in particular the need for regulatory reform. “The transformation of the Puerto Rico energy system requires not only physical changes to generation, transmission and distribution but strong regulation to ensure successful implementation,” says Tomás Torres, executive director of ICSE.
Rebuild bolder
AES Energy, a global energy company, which owns a coal plant on Puerto Rico and recently started Fluence, a joint battery storage venture with Siemens, has its own vision. It is proposing a series of seven solar-plus-storage mini-grids ringing the island. They would be connected with weather-hardened transmission lines and would operate as a single system under normal circumstances, but could run independently if needed. Rural customers in the interior would be served with independent micro-grids, eliminating the need for distribution lines crossing the rugged mountains. Solar would be the prime mover, with 4600 MW included in the plan. About 2500 MW of long-duration battery storage, combined with 1000 MW of existing conventional generators, would fill the gaps in meeting demand. Some existing oil and gas power plants would be moved into “cold reserve” to be available for the infrequent times when the primary solar and storage systems were inadequate. Solar is highlighted as key to reducing the costs of energy resiliency measures as it would eliminate the need to pay for expensive fuel imports.
Action now
These different ideas are symptomatic of a fundamental conflict — the need to rebuild quickly so people can carry on with their lives versus the need to create a sustainable system that can survive future hurricanes. PJ Wilson, founder of Solar For Puerto Rico, an organisation providing small solar-and-battery kits and educating people about how to access and use solar technology, and the new Puerto Rico Solar Energy Industries Association (PR-SEIA), want to see immediate radical action. The next hurricane season will start on June 1, he says. “Rather than waiting two or three hurricane seasons to begin thinking about how the island could be optimally resilient, Puerto Rico should deploy resilient micro-grids today. There are investors ready to completely fund the design and construction of these micro-grids now. The government’s role should be only to get out of the way and allow it to occur. Not years from now, but right now.”
Writer: Bentham Paulos
This article is part of the Nordic Clean Energy Series published by FORESIGHT Climate & Energy to support Nordic Clean Energy Week. A week where energy leaders from around the globe gather in Copenhagen and Malmö to discuss the policies, business and technological solutions and challenges involved in tackling climate change.
Learn more about the week - Nordic Clean Energy Week
Take a look at FORESIGHT’s Nordic Clean Energy Special Edition
published in May 2018.