Difficult renewables buildout means the nation’s
net-zero plans may require a return to nuclear
PUBLIC PERCEPTION
Despite low levels of public support, Japan is slowly re-opening its nuclear fleet in a bid to reach its net-zero target
NO DELAY
Adding new nuclear capacity is a long and expensive process, obscuring plans to meet mid-century goals
KEY QUOTE
Even with energy conservation, electrification, decarbonisation and hydrogen, a world without fossil fuels may not be realistic
In October 2020, Japanese prime minister Yoshihide Suga pledged that by 2050 Japan would reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero, with an intermediate target of 26% by 2030 compared to 2013 levels. Suga’s pledge came amid a bipartisan shift in the country to become more climate-friendly. One day after Suga’s announcement, Japan’s lawmakers declared a “climate emergency”, confirming that climate concerns had gripped both houses of government and crossed party lines. In April 2021, Suga went further still, by raising Japan’s climate change mitigation ambition even higher. Just hours before US president Joe Biden’s two-day virtual climate summit, Suga said Japan would reduce emissions by as much as 46% by 2030 relative to 2013 levels as part of the country’s pathway to reach net-zero by 2050. Japan, with the world’s third-largest economy after the US and China, is also currently the sixth-largest greenhouse gas emitter, according to US Environmental Protection Agency data. It remains the largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer in the world, though China is poised to take the top slot by the end of 2021. Japan is also an enormous oil consumer, ranking as the fifth global oil importer in 2019, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent analysis of Japan’s energy sector. In 2019, Japan was also the world’s third-largest coal importer, behind China and India. Petroleum and other liquids make up around 40% of Japan’s energy mix, followed by coal at 26%, liquefied natural gas (21%), renewables (6%), hydropower (4%), and nuclear (3%), according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. 
SOURCE
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
FOSSIL DEPENDENCE Despite the climate ambition, Suga admitted in October 2020 that even with energy conservation, electrification, decarbonisation and hydrogen, a world without fossil fuels may not be realistic. “Consequently, negative emission technologies for capturing and storing carbon dioxide will also be a critical element of Japan’s approach,” he said at the time. However, even if carbon capture and storage is increased in the country, the technology’s effectiveness is still debated and cannot be relied upon to reach net-zero by mid-century. But increasing renewables build-out in Japan, other than hydropower, also faces problems. Deep coastal waters make it difficult to install bottom-fixed offshore wind turbines and floating wind platforms are not yet commercial. Meanwhile, the country’s mountainous terrain reduces open space for onshore wind and solar farms, according to McKinsey & Company, a US consultancy. As of May 2021, Japan had installed only 0.06 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind capacity. Including its onshore wind capacity, Japan sourced less than 1% of its energy from wind power generation. Public scepticism stemming from the higher costs of offshore wind and the need to make turbines strong enough to handle earthquakes and typhoons means further development of wind capacity in Japan is unlikely at a sufficient scale. A NUCLEAR DILEMMA All this suggests then that nuclear power will be a vital part of Japan’s decarbonisation efforts. But its relationship with nuclear electricity generation in the wake of the March 2011 Fukushima disaster means its future role in Japan’s energy mix remains unclear. Nuclear power produced about 25% of the country’s electricity just before the disaster, according to the US EIA. 
Since the tragedy, public opinion in the country has largely solidified against the use of nuclear as a power generating fuel. According to a survey by the Japanese Atomic Energy Agency, 87% of the Japanese public approved of nuclear power in 2010, while that number dropped to 24% in 2013. By 2019, only 12% of study respondents said that nuclear power generation should be maintained or increased. Another 62% said that nuclear power should be phased out or abolished immediately. In his October 2020 pledge, Suga refused to rule out the construction of more nuclear power reactors, while ruling Liberal Democratic Party Upper House Secretary-General Seko Hiroshige said Japan would need to promote the resumption of nuclear power plants while keeping in mind their safety and also consider building new plants that incorporated new technologies. The next day, however, Chief Cabinet Secretary Kato Katsunobu said that the Suga-led government was not considering the addition of new nuclear power plants. Instead, despite the difficulties, Katsunobu pointed toward a ramp-up in political support for renewable energy development, adding that existing nuclear power plants would be “sufficient.”
Disaster zone The 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami devastated communities and led to the nuclear disaster at Fukushima
NUCLEAR RE-START By September 2013, Japan had removed all operational nuclear reactors from the grid. As of September 2020, however, restart applications for 25 existing reactors as well as applications for two brand new reactors were filed with the Japanese Nuclear Regulatory Agency. To date, 13 reactors are back online, totalling 8.7 GW—about a quarter of the country’s total existing capacity of 31.6 GW. The Japanese Nuclear Regulatory Agency has also recently approved the first stage of compliance for seven more reactors, for an additional 6.8 GW. Notwithstanding public disapproval over nuclear development, Japan’s current energy plan still calls for nuclear to make up 20-22% of its energy mix to 2030-31. After 2030, however, the role of nuclear power becomes less assured, with both Suga and most politicians in the country not offering much guidance. Hiroshi Kajiyama, Japan’s energy minister, said in an interview with the Financial Times newspaper in February 2021 that he considers nuclear energy indispensable if the country is to meet its target of reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. He pointed out that Japan’s electricity supply was “touch-and-go” during a heavy snowfall in January 2021, which resulted in higher electricity prices and tighter supplies in some parts of the country. “Solar wasn’t generating. Wind wasn’t generating. I’m trying to persuade everybody that in the end, we need nuclear power,” he said. In June, power shortages and record-breaking power price spikes seen earlier this year in Japan brought into focus the challenges of shutting down coal and nuclear. “Japan still needs a strong fleet of dispatchable power including gas and coal to support renewables build-out and more importantly, to replace a massive 50 GW of coal, gas and nuclear plant retirements expected in the current decade,” said Alex Whitworth from Wood Mackenzie, a market analysis firm. 
MONEY TALKS Despite Japan’s unclear nuclear future after 2030, energy economics may ultimately guide the government’s decision and public perception. Globally, the cost of wind and solar at $29-$56 per megawatt-hour (/MWh) has become cheaper than nuclear power which stands at $112-$180/MWh. According to the World Nuclear Industry Status 2019 report, nuclear power is “less economical and slower to reduce carbon emissions” compared to renewables. The longer period of time it takes to build reactors would in turn include longer periods of fossil fuel usage for power generation, adding further emissions, it added. In Japan, where the cost of renewables is higher due to the limited space and more advanced technology required, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) predicts the cost to generate renewable power in the country will drop below that of nuclear by 2030. Estimated costs for nuclear power came to close to the JPY 12,000/MWh ($109/MWh) by 2030, while solar and onshore wind will cost JPY 8000-17,000/MWh ($53-$112/MWh). Kenichi Oshima, a professor of environmental economics at Ryukoku University said the industry ministry had finally acknowledged it can no longer maintain the position that nuclear power is the most economical source of energy.
HYDROGEN FUTURE Japan has committed to developing more infrastructure to support the development of a green hydrogen economy, though at a nominal scale. However, hydrogen development is still in its early stages and remains more costly than both solar and wind, while economies of scale and fossil fuel cost parity remain a number of years away. Henry Edwards-Evans, an analyst at commodities data provider S&P Global Platts, says green hydrogen production costs need to drop at least another 50% to compete with fossil fuel production costs. The International Renewable Energy Agency, for its part, said in December that it could take another ten years for green hydrogen to compete with the cost of fossil fuel alternatives. •
TEXT Tim Daiss - PHOTO Eddi Aguirre & Fly and Dive/Shutterstock