The Jolt: Sticking to the budget

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Join us weekdays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view of the energy transition.

Welcome to today’s episode of The Jolt, arming you with the news and insight you need to navigate the rapidly changing shift towards a decarbonised economy.

What you need to know

Here are the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

COP28 needs to deliver “a bullet train to speed up climate action” but “we currently have an old caboose chugging over rickety tracks,” according to UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell. He called for the world to deliver on doubled adaptation finance. Governments also need to give their negotiators “clear marching orders” to achieve the highest possible ambition at the summit.
COP28 should mark the beginning of the end for fossil fuels, said EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra at the summit. Hoekstra told journalists that there is “no alternative than to follow what scientists tell us. And they are telling us we’re simply not on track.”
Ireland has pledged to double its climate finance contribution, offering €225 million next year. It has also pledged €12 million to help build resilience in places impacted by the climate crisis. Listen to other finance pledges in yesterday’s episode.
Most companies in high-emitting sectors are not aligned with the climate targets under the Paris Agreement, according to a new study by Imperial College London.
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Saudi Arabia on a rare foreign trip. According to Bloomberg, their talks included oil, after petrostate alliance OPEC+ and other major oil producers agreed to extend and intensify production cuts to rally prices.
Canada plans to launch a cap and trade system in 2026 to limit emissions from the oil and gas sector, according to Reuters.
The International Atomic Energy Agency is collaborating with Saudi Arabia on developing nuclear power, according to Arab News.
Korea Southern Power and Norwegian state-owned company Equinor have signed a memorandum of understanding to explore developing offshore wind projects. It should help contribute to Korea’s goal to reach carbon neutrality by 2050.
Nine organisations have won contracts worth a total of £11.6 million with the UK’s Atomic Energy Authority as part of a plan to develop innovative technologies for fusion energy.
A continuing lack of skilled workers could threaten Europe’s clean energy transition, warns the European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency following a two-day meeting of experts in Madrid.

Today’s main story

Sticking to the budget

Image ChatGPT / FORESIGHT

A recent report shows that the world could overshoot the 1.5C warming limit set out in the Paris Agreement in seven years if it continues to emit the same amount of carbon into the atmosphere as it currently does.
An excessive buildup of carbon dioxide in the world’s atmosphere, which has been increasing since the beginning of the Industrial Era, is heating the planet, leading to more extreme weather and climate change.

“The budget from January 1st 2024 is about 275 billion tonnes of CO2. Given that we emit about 40 [billion] every single year, we would exhaust this budget in around seven years. So if we keep emitting the same amount of CO2 as we did this year, we would reach this threshold and have a 50% chance […] of meeting the 1.5C.” – Pierre Friedlingstein, University of Exeter

Throughout the past decades, the overall trend has been an increase in emissions. Today, 60% of the world’s emissions come from the biggest emitters: China, the US, India and the EU27.
The world needs to slash its emissions in order to prevent drastic climate change and improve its land use, particularly around preventing deforestation, which also leads to more carbon in the atmosphere.

More climate and energy news is available on FORESIGHT website, including an opinion piece on the benefits of building renovation and a deep dive into greening steel.

We want The Jolt to be as listener-driven as possible. Get in touch with us about what you like, what you don’t like and what you’d like to see in future episodes. All feedback is appreciated:

Email us at thejolt@foresightdk.com

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Rewiring US Customer Relationships

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From FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, Watt Matters is a podcast all about the energy transition and the shift to a decarbonised economy.

For the best possible audio experience, listen to Watt Matters in the FORESIGHT app. This requires a subscription to FORESIGHT Climate & Energy. If you would like to know if your company/organisation is subscribed to FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, or if you would like a reminder of your login details, send an email to info@foresightdk.com.

The US’ electricity system is complicated, with each of the 50 states setting its own rules for how markets work, how power is priced and who manages customer relations.

But amid the complexity, Octopus Energy US sees a big opportunity to continue its UK success story across the pond and help US customers benefit from decarbonised electricity.

According to Michael Lee, the CEO of Octopus Energy US, customers can be the centrepiece of a grid based around more flexible demand if the focus is on cheaper prices and rewards for joining the road to decarbonisation.

He joins Watt Matter’s David Weston and Jan Rosenow to look at the company’s goal to boost customer’s involvement in the energy transition and the challenges of decarbonising the US grid.

Enjoy the show!

If you have any thoughts or questions about anything that has been discussed in this week’s episode, you can reach us at our X accounts:

Michael Lee
Michaela Holl
Jan Rosenow
David Weston
Kira Taylor
@WattMattersPod
FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

Listen and subscribe to Watt Matters wherever you get podcasts. Follow us on Twitter at @WattMattersPod or email us at show@wattmatterspodcast.com. You can also find FORESIGHT Climate & Energy on LinkedIn.

Illustration: Masha Krasnova-Shabaeva.

Show notes:

Our previous podcast with Octopus Energy in the UK can be found here.

What caught our eye this week:

Jan’s pick: Heaviest ever SUVs massively undermine climate benefits of other vehicle improvements, says new Global Fuel Economy Initiative report

Michael’s pick: Can the Electric Reliability Council of Texas show the way to faster and cheaper grid interconnection?

Dave’s pick: What would nature say? Second UK company appoints the natural world to its board

Handshakes and handbrakes in the energy transition

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Listen to Talking Transitions in the FORESIGHT app. This requires a membership to FORESIGHT Climate & Energy. If you would like to know if your company/organisation is subscribed to FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, or if you would like a reminder of your login details, send an email to info@foresightdk.com.

Talking Transitions is a new special podcast series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy and EY looking at how the transition to a sustainable economy—both from an environmental, but also social perspective—is affecting three key areas: the energy and resources industry, the financial services sector, and Government.

The rate of change the energy sector is witnessing is the fastest it has ever been. As a result, many energy companies, regulators, legislators and supply chains are struggling to keep up.

There is a greater need for collaboration across the full value chain to leverage the new capabilities being developed to create a sustainable economy, and to release the handbrakes hold the transition back.

With views from across the full energy spectrum, Serge Colle from EY and David Weston at FORESIGHT Climate & Energy are joined in this episode by:

Dr. Katharina Beumelburg, Chief Strategy and Sustainability Officer at oilfield services company SLB
Stewart Mullin, chief operating officer for the Global Wind Energy Council
Bart Boesmans, Chief Technical Officer at developer and utility ACWA Power

Links

EY’s Energy and Resources Transition Acceleration model report

Enjoy the show!

The greening of steel

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Seizing the triple win: Jobs, fair transition & decarbonisation through building upgrades

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The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

Over 25 million job-years would be created in Europe by adopting available green technology for buildings

Buildings account for 36% of final energy consumption and nearly 40% of energy-related CO2 emissions. The EU cannot meet its ambitious climate targets without decarbonising buildings.

Given the size of the task ahead and the renewed interest in climate policy as industrial policy, there is a massive potential for job creation when cost-effective decarbonisation technologies are adopted, which in turn leads to economic benefits for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and poorer households; a triple win. This supports each of the pillars of sustainable policy: economic, social, and environmental.

Research shows today’s conversation around the energy performance of buildings is fundamentally flawed and must switch from a narrative around the presumed cost of renovation to the benefits foregone because of insufficient ambition, implementation delay, or worse yet, inaction by legislators.

Much more aggressive policies are needed to deliver jobs, justice, and decarbonisation, especially for non-residential buildings.

GREEN, FAIR AND LOCAL

Deployment of low-carbon technologies in the buildings sector can create jobs, including those related to the construction, installation, operation, and maintenance of solar photovoltaic systems, energy storage systems, and heat pumps.

Lawmakers should prioritise low-carbon technologies in the building sector to realise the benefits to society and the planet through financial incentives, regulations and standards. Even using conservative estimations, millions of lasting jobs would be created while driving to net zero and economic growth.

These technologies can create major opportunities in France (over 9 million jobs years), Germany (over 6 million), Italy (over 4.5 million), Spain (over 4 million), and the Netherlands (over 2 million). Such benefits incentivise companies, cities and governments to accelerate decarbonisation.

Buildings are already a significant economic driver of growth today. Builders and related industries account for 18 million jobs across the EU today—nearly 8% of total employment. The International Energy Agency (IEA) calculates that for every €1 million invested in energy renovation between 9 and 30 local jobs are created.

It is worth highlighting the word “local”. Renovations are typically led by small construction firms and contractors, supporting SMEs and local apprenticeships.

Our research paper elucidated the job creation potential on a per-building basis. The results demonstrate the power of clean technologies to support employment.

ELECTRIFICATION, DIGITALISATION AND FLEXIBILITY

To maximise impact, strategies cannot rely solely on insulation and passive solutions. Adopting integrated electrification, digitalisation, storage and onsite renewables is equally critical to transform buildings from energy consumers to flexible assets supporting decarbonisation.

All-electric buildings paired with smart controls and solar PV unlock huge efficiency gains compared to fossil fuels. The merit of all-electric buildings cannot be understated. Heat pumps can reduce heating emissions up to 80% over natural gas. Smart buildings optimise energy usage based on occupancy. Battery storage reduces grid strain. Onsite solar displaces carbon-intensive electricity.

These technologies also enable demand response. Digitised buildings can shift usage based on grid signals, balancing supply and demand. Electric vehicles, thermal storage and other distributed assets can store energy.

This “grid-interactive efficient buildings” approach turns buildings into a managed resource supporting decarbonisation—exactly what 21st-century infrastructure requires.

Financial incentives need to promote electrification and digitalisation, not just conventional upgrades. Codes should mandate or encourage fossil fuel phase-outs, EV charging, solar PV, energy storage and smart controls. Plans focused only on insulation will strand assets, minimise emissions reductions and ultimately miss the opportunity for meaningful climate change action.

A JUST TRANSITION

Renovations done right promote social equity and inclusion. Small firms contracted for upgrades create jobs across communities. Targeted training programmes allow disadvantaged groups to access careers in construction. Lower energy bills make housing more affordable. Energy poverty decreases, along with associated health problems.

Furthermore, renovation has advantages over new construction. Reusing existing building materials lowers the environmental impact and reduces construction time compared to demolition and reconstruction. Refurbishment also preserves cultural heritage, neighbourhood character and avoids tenant displacement.

The IEA estimates doubling the renovation rate could provide three million additional direct jobs in the EU by 2030. Tax revenues generated from job growth can subsidise upgrades for low-income households. Between 50 million and 80 million Europeans lived in energy poverty and “struggled to keep homes adequately warm” before the pandemic and, for most EU countries for which we have data, this number has increased following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

As demand grows, the EU needs to scale up skills training and education programmes. This will prepare workers for the estimated doubling of building renovations required this decade. Youth apprenticeships provide pathways into the trades. Continuing education helps experienced workers add skills in high-performance construction, heat pumps, solar PV, IT and building controls.

SEIZING THE OPPORTUNITY

The climate imperative is clear and the social and economic benefits are compelling. EU leaders have a pivotal opportunity to implement policies that maximise job creation, deliver a just transition and rapidly decarbonise building stock.

This means making the European Performance in Buildings Directive (EPBD) rhyme with opportunity. Parliament’s mandate was notable for its ambition and technology push, both of which have been hailed by industry.

These should be preserved throughout the trilogues, especially for non-residential buildings. The triple win is clear and the moment to seize it is now.

If you have a thoughtful response to the opinions expressed here or if you have an idea for a thought leadership article regarding an aspect of the global energy transition, please send a short pitch of 200 words outlining your thoughts and credentials to: opinion@foresightdk.com.

The Jolt: Over land and sea

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Join us weekdays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view of the energy transition.

Welcome to today’s episode of The Jolt, arming you with the news and insight you need to navigate the rapidly changing shift towards a decarbonised economy.

What you need to know

Here are the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

2023 is on track to be the hottest year on record with ocean temperatures also hitting record highs, according to scientists from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. It comes as a report from the University of Exeter and Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability shows 2023 saw a record level of global carbon emissions from fossil fuels.
US climate envoy John Kerry and former Vice President Al Gore didn’t pull their punches at COP28. Kerry called out some US oil producers for not doing enough to tackle the climate crisis while Gore criticised petrostates, including Saudi Arabia, for influencing climate negotiations, according to Bloomberg.
COP28 has seen a series of new climate finance commitments. The Philippines and the United Nations Development Programme got Canada’s commitment for $5.3 billion, Italy has committed €5 million to the Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa, the Arab Coordination group will allocate $10bn to support the energy transition until 2030 and the UK is offering £140m to help developing countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America reach net zero.
More than 60 countries, including the United States, Canada and Kenya, signed up to a “cooling pledge” at COP. A recent United Nations Environment Programme report shows reducing the power consumption of cooling equipment could lead to a reduction of at least 60% of the sector’s predicted emissions by 2050.
Brazil, Panama, California and the European Commission have joined the Global Offshore Wind Alliance. They will add a further 65 gigawatts of targeted capacity to the alliance, which wants to reach 380 GW of wind in 2030 and 2,000 GW in 2050.
China could set up a coal production reserve by 2027 with the goal of reaching 300 million metric tons of dispatchable annual production by the end of the decade. Draft rules were issued by the state planner for public comment on Wednesday and indicate the system would include new mining projects of at least 3 million tons of production capacity a year, according to Reuters.
Zambia’s Copperbelt Energy Corporation will issue the country’s first green bond by the end of the year, something it hopes will attract more green finance. The $200m programme will launch its first tranche of $54m in December, with the proceeds going towards the country’s solar generation.
Denmark needs to repeat the same level of emissions reductions it managed in the last three decades in just seven years if it wants to reach its targeted 70% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. While the country has done well so far, a new energy policy review by the IEA shows additional measures are needed, notably in the transport and buildings sectors.

Today’s main story

Over land and sea

Image ChatGPT / FORESIGHT

As the EU hosts a ‘Transport Day’ at COP28, we’re looking at how easy it is to take less polluting transport over big distances.
Railway commentator Jon Worth and Green politician Ciarán Cuffe recently documented their journey from Brussels to Dublin via train and ferry. They called for a single ticket to make going via France easier and highlighted other challenges, such as slow or missing connections and poor Wi-Fi.
Price is also a big challenge, something the NGO Transport and Environment says could be helped by creating a level playing field between trains and planes, reducing VAT and tolls paid by trains.

“Either the EU has to fix it so all international trains enjoy zero VAT or they have to remove the exemption for aviation, to have a level playing field” – Victor Thévenet, T&E

The European Union is also working on improving passenger experience. This includes steps to increase transparency around disruptions, more information on how to book spaces for bikes and disabled seats, and increased passenger rights.
But there is a lot more to be done, including making single tickets more easily accessible to create smoother multimodal journeys.

The latest episode of Watt Matters is available for our subscribers today. It’s all about renewable energy in the US, so make sure to check that out. It will also be available for everyone on Friday.

We want The Jolt to be as listener-driven as possible. Get in touch with us about what you like, what you don’t like and what you’d like to see in future episodes. All feedback is appreciated:

Email us at thejolt@foresightdk.com

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Defining transition finance

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The Financial Services sector is looking to scale up its transition finance capabilities.

There are a range of available mechanisms and different approaches being taken but it remains still an early stage development with incomplete and varying definitions of what forms a “transition finance” investment.

Episode four of Talking Transitions was recorded in the Green Zone at the COP28 climate negotiations in Dubai. The panelists delve into the difficulties of establishing such a definition whilst avoiding greenwashing and how the culture of the finance sector is changing in its approach to supporting low-carbon investments.

Editor-in-Chief David Weston is joined by Kazuto Kita from EY’s financial services team and Joost Vreeswijk from its tax team.

Also on the panel are:

Daniel Hanna, Global Head of Sustainable Finance for the Corporate and Investment Bank arm of Barclays
Grazielle Parenti, Head of Business Sustainability & Government Affairs for Latin America at agricultural science and technology firm Syngenta
Jenn-Hui Tan, asset management firm Fidelity.

The City of London Lord Mayor Michael Mainelli also provides a scene-setting introduction.

Enjoy the show.

The Jolt: Good COP, Bad COP

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Join us weekdays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view of the energy transition.

Welcome to today’s episode of The Jolt, arming you with the news and insight you need to navigate the rapidly changing shift towards a decarbonised economy.

What you need to know

Here are the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

COP28 negotiators are continuing their work on the summit’s Global Stocktake conclusions. The current draft mentions an “orderly and just phase out of fossil fuels” but a compromise on language around finance is proving difficult to find.
Nearly 2,500 lobbyists affiliated with the fossil fuel industry have been admitted to the COP28 summit, according to new figures. The number of oil, gas and coal advocates outnumber every single country’s delegation except Brazil’s.
Energy firms Iberdrola and Masdar agreed to co-invest €15 billion in green energy projects in the United States, United Kingdom and Germany.
G7 countries signed a clean energy partnership with Ukraine. The alliance will act as a forum for wealthier countries to share knowledge on issues like electricity market reform, renewable energy auctions and energy efficiency measures.
European planemaker Airbus indicated that it may seek taxpayer support to help develop its next-generation fleet of aircraft, CEO Guillaume Faury told the Financial Times.
India’s top clean energy firm Adani Energy will invest an extra $22 bn in its operations by 2030. That comes on top of an existing $70 bn commitment made last year. Adani’s project pipeline includes 20 gigawatts of renewable power and other green tech.
Mauritania could soon host the world’s largest clean energy park. Dutch company GreenGo Energy has applied for permission to build a renewables hub with a capacity of 60 GW. The pilot phase is due online by 2028.
Germany could fix its budget shortfall by eliminating tax breaks for the auto sector, its environment agency says. Scrapping the more than €17 bn in perks on offer for wealthier motorists and company cars, as well as introducing higher diesel taxes, could plug a funding gap caused by a recent constitutional court decision.

Today’s main story

Good COP, Bad COP

Image Midjourney/ FORESIGHT

Awarding COP28 hosting rights to the United Arab Emirates has stoked controversy because of the Gulf state’s massive fossil fuel interests. Future COPs also have to contend with similar issues.
COP29 still does not have a host, mainly due to Russia vetoing any European Union member that declared its candidacy.
The summit should be hosted by an Eastern European country, according to the UN’s rotation system. That leaves non-EU Balkan countries potentially emerging as frontrunners but many lack the infrastructure to host such a large event.
If no host can be agreed on during COP28, the venue may revert to the conference’s secretariat in Bonn, Germany.
If there is no subsequent agreement on a proxy host then the current controversial chair, the UAE’s Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber, would remain in the post for another year.
Brazil will host COP30 in the Amazonian city of Belém. Claudio Angelo, from the Brazilian NGO Climate Observatory, says hosting duties give civil society a chance to exert pressure on the federal government and local authorities to do more.
He sees COP30 as a great opportunity for the international community to hold Brazil to account, do more to reduce deforestation and even expose some of the hypocrisy of President Lula da Silva’s energy and climate policies.
Check out this episode of the Policy Dispatch for more on Brazil’s climate role.

“The crappier the previous year’s conference gets, the better and more hopeful the next one becomes.” – Claudio Angelo, Climate Observatory

Polly Hemming, director of the energy and climate programme at the Australia Institute, insists it would be a mistake to grant Australia hosting rights for COP31. She argues that Australia has lobbied against international climate efforts for decades and that it would only use the event to greenwash its image.
India has declared its interest in hosting COP33 in 2028. But no countries have indicated an interest in 2027’s COP32 summit.

FORESIGHT Editor-in-Chief David Weston and CEO Kasper Thjell-Karstensen are at COP this week recording episodes of the Energy Enablers and Talking Transitions podcast with EY. You’ll be able to hear the first of those episodes later this week!

We want The Jolt to be as listener-driven as possible. Get in touch with us about what you like, what you don’t like and what you’d like to see in future episodes. All feedback is appreciated:

Email us at thejolt@foresightdk.com

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The Jolt: Taxing times at COP28

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Join us weekdays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view of the energy transition.

Welcome to today’s episode of The Jolt, arming you with the news and insight you need to navigate the rapidly changing shift towards a decarbonised economy.

What you need to know

Here are the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

COP28 President Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber believes there is no scientific case for getting rid of fossil fuels. The UAE summit chair said that getting rid of hydrocarbons would “take the world back into caves”. More details here.
The United States joined an international pledge to get rid of coal power. The country joins more than 50 others aiming to decarbonise their electricity grids. Cyprus, Czechia, the Dominican Republic, Iceland, Kosovo and Norway also got on board with the alliance.
More than 100 countries backed a plan to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy savings by 2030. Major countries like China, India and Indonesia have not signed up yet but summit attendees are confident the pledge will attract more signatures.
Twenty-two countries joined an alliance aimed at tripling nuclear power capacity by 2050. It includes nuclear powerhouses like France, the United Kingdom and the US, as well as aspiring atom-smashers like Ghana and Poland.
China will reportedly announce new emission reduction targets for 2030 and 2035 within the next 18 months, according to a top climate envoy. The new targets will be published in the same year that China’s emissions are expected to peak.
Trade talks between the European Union and South America’s Mercosur bloc are on the verge of collapse following Argentina’s president choosing to defer a decision on the pact to his incoming far-right replacement, Javier Milei. The agreement has proven controversial with environmental groups and farmers associations.
North Macedonia launched a just transition investment platform to help reach its green goals, which include completely ditching coal and adding nearly 2 gigawatts of renewables by 2030. The Balkan nation needs to attract investments of around €3 billion to achieve its ambitions.
The government of New Zealand, or Aotearoa, cancelled a planned project for pumped hydro storage designed to provide clean power during seasonal dry spells. The new administration said the NZ$16 bn project was “wasteful”.

Today’s main story

Taxing times at COP28

Image Midjourney/ FORESIGHT

Net-zero policies will require huge investments to become a reality. With the international community struggling to put that kind of funding in place, one previously taboo subject has been touted as a solution: taxation.
At COP28, France and Kenya presented a new international taxation taskforce to work on designing and helping to implement new taxes. The potential revenues promise hundreds of billions of dollars for green projects.
The taskforce will start work in the new year and will aim to present a feasible tax initiative at COP30 in 2025.
Rachel Owens, climate financing director at the European Climate Foundation, says that the idea of imposing new taxes is no longer taboo, especially if they are targeted at sectors or industries that have previously not been subject to levies.

“We’ve been talking for decades about how to find the trillions, rather than the billions we need for climate action.”

Friederike Röder, vice-president for global policy at the NGO Global Citizen, suggests that a financial transactions tax and windfall tax on fossil fuel profits are among the leading options.

We want The Jolt to be as listener-driven as possible. Get in touch with us about what you like, what you don’t like and what you’d like to see in future episodes. All feedback is appreciated:

Email us at thejolt@foresightdk.com

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The Jolt: We’re going daily

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Join us on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

Welcome to today’s episode of The Jolt, arming you with the news and insight you need to navigate the rapidly changing transition to a decarbonised economy.

What you need to know

Here are the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

COP28 delegates agreed on a new loss and damage fund for poorer countries impacted by climate change. Germany and the United Arab Emirates have already made sizeable pledges and other countries have been urged to donate whenever they can. Check out this episode of The Jolt to learn more about the fund’s difficult birth.
Work is ongoing on a global stocktake, one of the main points on the COP agenda. A first draft mentions phasing out fossil fuels, peaking global emissions and tripling renewable energy. Commentators on the ground in Dubai are optimistic the summit is off to a better start than the previous one in Egypt.
World leaders took to the stage for their speeches at the COP28 opening ceremony. The United Kingdom’s King Charles III urged countries to take “genuine transformational action”, Brazilian President Lula Da Silva pledged to make his country a climate role model and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered to host COP33 in 2028.
A court in Berlin ruled that Germany’s climate policies are not making enough of a dent in transport and buildings sector emissions. An appeal is likely but, if the government loses that too, it will be forced to step up its efforts.
France and Belgium have reopened a canal to shipping traffic after it was closed in the early 1990s. Renovation works lasted seven years and cost more than €100 million. The two countries hope it will help get more freight onto waterways and off the roads, cutting the number of polluting trucks needed to haul goods.
The UK’s new Clean Heat Market Mechanism will oblige boilermakers to sell a certain number of heat pumps. Under new rules that will come into force next year, firms will have to offset 4% of their boiler sales.
Households in Britain will be rewarded for using less electricity this evening. Due to cold weather, the grid regulator wants to manage demand by offering certain consumers money off their bills in return for energy savings. The regulator hopes to slash demand by 500 megawatts.
Poland’s state-run oil company, Orlen, lost 8% of its market value this week. The incoming government has announced that a new levy to help pay for energy bill freezes will hit the firm.
The United States’ Supreme Court may curb the power of federal agencies. As part of an ongoing case, due to wrap up next summer, judges are considering cracking down on the ability of agencies like the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Environmental Protection Agency to enforce their own rules.
Venezuela will hold a referendum on Sunday on whether to annex oil-rich territory belonging to neighbouring Guyana. The dispute stretches back centuries to colonial times. However, the referendum may just be a stunt to help build political support for President Nicólas Maduro ahead of elections next year.

Today’s main story

We’re going daily

The Jolt has been bringing you bite-sized energy and climate updates, plus a closer look at the important story of the day for two months.
But episodes on just Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays just aren’t enough to bring you the full story. That’s why FORESIGHT Climate & Energy is delighted to announce that The Jolt will be moving to a daily format from Monday!
Experienced journalist Kira Taylor will join Sam as a host. So get in touch if you have tips, feedback or any other thoughts about the episodes or topics we cover.

While you’re here, check out the latest episodes of the Policy Dispatch and Energy Enablers, plus two new deep dives on aviation and shipping.

We want The Jolt to be as listener-driven as possible. Get in touch with us about what you like, what you don’t like and what you’d like to see in future episodes. All feedback is appreciated:

Email us at thejolt@foresightdk.com

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Sam Morgan LinkedIn / Twitter

Kira Taylor LinkedIn / Twitter

Any way the wind blows

Multiple flight plans

Putting the “net” in net zero emissions

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From FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, Watt Matters is a podcast all about the energy transition and the shift to a decarbonised economy.

There are no studies where absolute zero emissions can be reached with reductions alone, meaning carbon removals are crucial to reaching ‘net’ zero emissions, according to the IPCC. After the world has reached that point, any remaining emission would need to be countered by an equivalent removal from the atmosphere.

Because of this, the world of carbon removals is rapidly growing in importance, from technological innovations to legislation looking into how to verify removals.

To introduce us to the world of capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removals (CDR), Eve Tamme, policy expert and founder of climate policy advisory, Climate Principles, joins the Watt Matters team.

Enjoy the show.

If you have any thoughts or questions about anything that has been discussed in this week’s episode, you can reach us at our X accounts:

Eve Tamme
Michaela Holl
Jan Rosenow
David Weston
Kira Taylor
@WattMattersPod
FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

Illustration: Masha Krasnova-Shabaeva.

Show notes:

You can find Eve’s latest blog post on the convergence of the voluntary and compliance carbon markets here.

The CCS ladder Michaela mentions is available here.

Our previous podcast on the Methane Regulation can be found here.

What caught our eye this week:

Jan’s pick: Joint Research Centre paper on heat pump developments, trends, value chains and markets

Eve’s pick: Global Status of CCS Report 2023 by Global CCS Institute

Dave’s pick: UK government raises maximum prices in renewable energy auction

Michaela’s pick: EU negotiators reach provisional agreement on regulating methane emissions

Kira’s pick: Upcoming report – Piloting the Climate Club: A Sectoral Alliance for Steel. The report will be available here at the end of November.

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A hydrogen alternative

The case for blue hydrogen

Autumn/Winter 2023

Introducing: Talking Transitions

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When we talk about the transition to a decarbonised economy, it sounds like just one change. In reality, however, this societal evolution holds within it a number of different and varied transitions across sectors, geographies and timelines.

This is Talking Transitions, a new special podcast series brought to you by FORESIGHT Climate & Energy and EY.

In this series, we’ll be looking at how the transition to a sustainable economy—both from an environmental, but also social perspective—is affecting three key areas: the energy and resources industry, the financial services sector, and Government.

In the first three podcasts, we will take a look at where we stand today, focusing on both the risks and the opportunities for these three areas.

Then, we will be at the COP28 climate negotiations in Dubai for some live podcasts to discuss how challenges can be addressed, no-regret strategies, the role of both the public and private sectors and how they interlink. And we will then follow up on COP with a further set of three podcasts reflecting on what took place in Dubai and what the next steps will or should be.

Guiding me along the way will be an EY thought leader from each of the three different areas as well as a number of expert guests bringing their own unique insights into the transitions.

We hope you will join us too.

Stay tuned.

The Jolt: A taste of e-fuel

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Introducing The Jolt, a new series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, which will keep you updated on all the essential energy transition stories

Listen to The Jolt in the FORESIGHT app. This requires a membership to FORESIGHT Climate & Energy. If you would like to know if your company/organisation is subscribed to FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, or if you would like a reminder of your login details, send an email to info@foresightdk.com.

Welcome to today’s episode of The Jolt by FORESIGHT Climate & Energy. In a world underpinned by climate and energy stories, it is sometimes hard to cut through the cacophony of noise and get to the news you need to hear.

This is where The Jolt comes in. Tune in on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

We kick off with a look at the major global climate and energy news stories.

What you need to know

Here are some of the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

China and the United States agree to back a pledge to triple renewable energy rollout by 2030 and to include all greenhouse gases in their future climate plans. The breakthrough comes just two weeks ahead of the start of COP28.
Developed countries may have achieved their goal of providing $100 billion in climate financing to developing nations, according to preliminary OECD data for 2022. However, the target was supposed to be met in 2020.
UK offshore wind subsidies have been reformed in order to avoid a repeat of a failed auction in September that drew no bids. The maximum strike price has been increased for offshore wind, floating offshore and solar power by an average of 50%. Check out this explainer on Contracts for Difference to understand better how the scheme works.
Sweden will build two new nuclear reactors by 2035, the government announced. Public money will be put on the table but the private sector is still expected to do the heavy lifting.
Norway and Belgium are looking into linking their electricity grids with an undersea cable. The project would also be hooked up to Norwegian wind farms. Belgium is already planning a similar link with Denmark.
African electricity regulators met in Kenya for talks on how to boost renewable energy. Officials from Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Ghana, Namibia and South Africa gathered in Nairobi to share ideas and plot a course towards more green power.
All healthcare facilities in poorer countries could be run on solar power and it would only cost $5 billion to fund it, according to the World Health Organisation. The UN body will present its findings at COP28 next month.
Jordan will not ratify a water and energy agreement that it brokered with Israel. Jordan’s foreign minister says that the deal is now off the table because of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.
And the United Arab Emirates has inaugurated one of the largest solar power plants in the world. Covering more than 20 square kilometres and capable of generating two gigawatts of power, the plant is equipped with panels that rotate to follow the sun and robots that remove sand blown in from the desert.

Today’s big story

A taste of e-fuel

Image MidJourney / Prompts FORESIGHT.

Electricity can be used to produce molecules like hydrogen, which can then be used to decarbonise sectors where direct electrification struggles. These power-to-X processes promise much but are complicated to understand.
FORESIGHT Climate & Energy’s latest magazine zeroes in on power-to-X and looks at how it can be used in the energy transition, which sectors are in pole position to benefit and what hurdles stand in the way.

“Lots of people say it’s a silver bullet that can be applied really easily. That’s not the case”

FORESIGHT Editor-in-Chief David Weston says there are many conversations to be had about where to deploy power-to-X (and also where not to deploy it). The magazine aims to shed some light on those debates.
The magazine articles will appear on the FORESIGHT website over the next couple of weeks and a digital copy of the edition will be available on November 20th. Members will receive their print copy soon.

While you’re here, check out the latest episode of the Policy Dispatch as well as our new deep dive on e-fuels and a look at the complex world of electrolysers,

We want The Jolt to be as listener-driven as possible! Get in touch with us about what you like, what you don’t like and what you’d like to see in future episodes. All feedback is appreciated so don’t be shy.

Email us at thejolt@foresightdk.com

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Sam Morgan LinkedIn / Twitter

The complex world of electrolysers

The Jolt: You brake it, you buy it

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Introducing The Jolt, a new series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, which will keep you updated on all the essential energy transition stories

Join us on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

Welcome to today’s episode of The Jolt, arming you with the news and insight you need to navigate the rapidly changing transition to a decarbonised economy.

What you need to know

Here are some of the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

Climate scientists warn that the globe experienced its first taste of 2℃ warming last week after average surface temperatures briefly breached the climate change milestone. See the satellite data here.
Argentina has elected a new far-right climate change-denying president. Javier Milei wants to expand oil and gas production, boost investments in lithium mining and has pledged to shut down the environment ministry.
The UK government will reportedly offer households located near new power projects up to £10,000 in compensation. The plan hopes to head off permitting complaints that have helped create a massive backlog of grid projects.
Norwegian chemicals firm Yara International has signed a carbon capture and storage agreement with a North Sea project. Around 800,000 tonnes of CO2 will be captured every year at its Dutch plant and shipped for storage to a facility off the coast of Norway. Touted as the first cross-border deal of its kind in the world, operations are supposed to start in 2025, cost €200 million and last 15 years.
Nigeria’s government has advised its federal states to set up climate change departments. A recent NGO report says that just eight of the 36 states have climate policies in place. Check out our recent deep dive on Nigeria’s long path to climate neutrality.
The Central African Republic has inaugurated a 25 megawatt solar plant with battery storage that will power 250,000 homes. It will double the country’s electricity-generating capacity and replace a chunk of polluting diesel power.
Japan completed a third round of radioactive water discharge from the wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant. The authorities pumped 8000 tonnes of tainted water into the ocean and another round is planned this year.
The European Union’s new renewable energy rules enter force today. After officials agreed on a reformed directive, member countries will now have to work together to reach a 42.5% clean energy target by 2030.
UN delegates in Kenya were left frustrated after talks about a global plastics treaty stalled. Countries are aiming to have an international pact in place by 2025 but there is widespread disagreement about how the treaty should actually work. More talks are planned for early 2024.

Today’s big story

You brake it, you buy it

Germany’s government earmarked €60 billion for a climate transformation fund designed to help the country and its powerhouse industries decarbonise.
The fund is fuelled by borrowing made during the Covid-19 pandemic, when Germany used emergency powers to take on €240 billion in debt. The leftovers were funnelled into this new climate war chest.

Last week, the Bundesrepublik’s influential constitutional court ruled that this was against the law of the land and that the government will have to source money for its green commitments from somewhere else.
The ruling coalition will face a difficult task, as the budget gap will have to be plugged either by extra taxes or projects will have to be scaled back. Talks on the 2024 budget will have to reflect this new consideration.
Dutch bank ING’s chief economist for Germany, Carsten Brzeski, says it is a big problem for the government and that the court is gradually making it more difficult for Germany to be creative in its accounting.

“Declaring an emergency to the German economy would allow the government to deviate from this constitutional fiscal brake”

Brzeski suggests that Germany may to be “blunt and transparent” and announce that climate change is an emergency, as it did for the Covid-19 pandemic, in order to bypass the constitutional debt brake.
Germany’s parliament has not formally taken this step, unlike other countries, and is only covered by an EU-wide announcement dating back to 2019.

While you’re here, check out the new edition of the FORESIGHT magazine, now available as a digital copy.

We want The Jolt to be as listener-driven as possible. Get in touch with us about what you like, what you don’t like and what you’d like to see in future episodes. All feedback is appreciated so don’t be shy.

Email us at thejolt@foresightdk.com

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Sam Morgan LinkedIn / Twitter

Moldova’s crisis-driven transition

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From FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, Policy Dispatch is a podcast all about the policies that underpin the global energy transition.

For the best possible audio experience, listen to Policy Dispatch in the FORESIGHT app. If you don’t already have the app, download it from the App Store or Google Play. Use your FORESIGHT login details to access the app.

Home to nearly 3 million people and nestled on Europe’s eastern frontier between Romania and Ukraine, Moldova has been significantly affected by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine because of its extremely fragile energy security situation.

That prompted Moldova to hook its electricity grid up to continental Europe’s and to pursue an even more ambitious strategy to align itself with European Union rules and regulations. This month, the EU said that membership talks should begin as soon as possible.

On top of all that, Moldova also wants to bolster its energy security by ramping up renewable power and generating homegrown electricity, rather than relying on others to provide energy. Bountiful natural resources and political momentum mean that Moldova could well end up decarbonising quicker than some Western European countries.

State-secretary for energy Carolina Novac explains in this episode why Moldova has embarked on a green path, what challenges are standing in its way and what is needed from its international partners to pull it off.

Thanks for listening, enjoy the show!

If you have any thoughts or questions about anything that has been discussed in this week’s episode, you can reach us at our Twitter accounts:

Carolina Novac
Sam Morgan
@Policy Dispatch
Kira Taylor
FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

Listen and subscribe to Policy Dispatch wherever you get podcasts. Follow us on Twitter at @Policy Dispatch or email us at show@policydispatch.com. You can also find FORESIGHT Climate & Energy on LinkedIn.

Show notes:
FORESIGHT Policy Section

E-fuels in bid to keep pace with batteries

The Jolt: We are living in a raw material world

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Introducing The Jolt, a new series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, which will keep you updated on all the essential energy transition stories

This is where The Jolt comes in. Tune in on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

We kick off with a look at the major global climate and energy news stories.

What you need to know

Here are some of the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

The United States government has published a new report on climate resilience and announced $6 billion in funding for new projects. That includes nearly $4bn for grid updates and $2bn for community-led clean energy initiatives. President Joe Biden is meeting Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in San Francisco today.
Germany’s government will underwrite a €15bn rescue package for Siemens Energy. The agreement includes a €7.5bn loan guarantee and funding provided by Siemens itself.
Germany’s constitutional court announced this morning that a 2021 government budget decision to earmark €60bn for climate projects was not constitutional. Berlin will now have to find the money from somewhere else.
The United Kingdom has slipped from fourth to seventh on a global ranking of market attractiveness for clean energy investments. EY’s new index also shows that the UK has lost its coveted number one spot in the offshore wind sector.
France has agreed a new average electricity price of €70 per megawatt-hour with state-owned nuclear firm EDF. This new system will apply as of 2026 and includes a revenue-redistribution mechanism if prices exceed certain thresholds.
France and Ireland have commemorated the start of construction works on a new undersea cable linking their power grids. The Celtic Interconnector will have a capacity of 700 MW, run for 500 km under the sea and cost €750 million. It is due online by 2027.
Belgium’s grid operator has unveiled new environmental and biodiversity protection standards for a planned energy island in the North Sea. The artificial island will act as a hub for wind farms and undersea cables and is supposed to be finished by 2026.
Iceland’s authorities are building a wall around a geothermal power plant that is located near volcanic activity triggered by more than 800 earthquakes in recent days. The wall will hopefully divert any potential lava flows away from the power plant.
India is on track to install a record 17 gigawatts of solar power this year, eclipsing the current record of 14 GW. Installed capacity is at 72 GW and a solar boom is underway thanks to supply chain constraints easing and utility projects coming online.
Australia has opened a consultation on carbon border taxation. The government will decide whether to follow the EU and UK and deploy its own version of the CBAM.
And the Caribbean nation of Dominica has decided to protect 800 km2 of its waters and create a sperm whale reserve. Sperm whales feed and nurse their young in Dominica’s waters and – bear with us – defecate on the water’s surface. This leads to plankton blooms and large scale CO2 storage. Scientists have calculated that the Dominica reserve is therefore equivalent to the emissions savings of taking 5,000 cars off the road every year!

Today’s big story

We are living in a raw material world

Image MidJourney / Prompts FORESIGHT.

Demand for raw materials is increasing as the energy transition gathers place and countries look for extra supplies of important clean tech ingredients like cobalt, copper, lithium and nickel.
The private sector is responding to that demand as companies that have traditionally focused on fossil fuels retool their supply chains and tweak their business models. Oil and gas major Exxon, for example, is moving into the lithium mining game.
National market shares of critical raw materials are rather lopsided. China’s dominance in particular is a worry for global governments that are not blessed with the same geographical and geological luck.
Export controls recently deployed by countries like China and Indonesia have already provided a taste of what the trade in raw materials will have to contend with and arbitration cases at the World Trade Organisation are already underway.
The European Union agreed this week on a new critical raw materials act, which will impose recycling, production and processing targets, as well as aiming to make sure no single country controls more than 65% of supply of crucial materials.

“The EU faces a new risk: structural supply shortages”

Europe’s head of industry policy, Thierry Breton, says progress on the energy and digital transitions is completely reliant on raw materials access and that “this is where it gets complicated”.
PowerShift’s Michael Reckordt says that the new Act is welcome, particularly its recycling targets, but that not enough attention has been paid to reducing consumption.
He adds that regulators like the European Commission should be looking at alternatives where they are possible. Electric cars should, for example, not replace ICE cars one-for-one, instead options like buses, cycling and smaller cars should be prioritised.

While you’re here, check out the latest episode of the Policy Dispatch and our new deep dive on e-fuels. Also stay tuned for Friday’s episode when we will give you a sneak peek at our new magazine.

Audio credit: European Commission archive

Email us at thejolt@foresightdk.com

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The great divide: How divisive issues threaten the path to net zero

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The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

Global leaders herald the urgency of infrastructure transition, but the research paints a contrasting image

From the streets of urban metropolises to the corridors of power in major corporations, a multiplicity of voices seek to influence the future of our infrastructure. And amidst these different voices lies a profound revelation: division.

The recent Infrastructure Transition Monitor 2023 report uncovers these divides, shedding light on the differences that might slow our collective race to net zero. As we push for the modernisation and decarbonisation of energy, buildings, mobility and industries, it is clear that the stakes have never been higher. The infrastructure transition—projected to span three decades—is the most ambitious and encompassing transformation in the history of infrastructure development.

Sadly, the research does not provide a clear map that we can use to chart our course to a cleaner energy transition as it unveils surprising discrepancies. While more than 50% of the 1400 executives surveyed see decarbonisation as a competitive advantage, less than half (47%) believe their countries possess an effective decarbonisation strategy.

Even more troubling, less than 50% of organisations anticipate meeting their decarbonisation targets by 2030.

THE TRANSITION BATTLEGROUND

While the urgency of the energy transition and industry decarbonisation is at the forefront, other forces like digitalisation, demographic shifts and unpredictable factors like technological innovations and political shifts are also at play.

The result is that innovation and integration are at a crossroads and debates surge over the feasibility of various solutions, such as carbon capture, green and blue hydrogen, energy storage and much more.

Business is divided on the likelihood of decarbonisation outcomes, with 46% of respondents saying they will likely accelerate decarbonisation efforts in the year ahead, but 31% saying it is unlikely.

The views are as polarising as many countries’ decarbonisation strategies. What we urgently need is alignment and collaboration. But if we are to believe the numbers, consensus remains elusive and divisive opinions threaten the momentum we desperately seek.

To better grasp where we are collectively in the transition, we must look at the different issues, challenges and opportunities the players face. We have created a view across three spheres of influence – regional, city and industry perspectives.

SPHERE 1: THE REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE

Different regions, with distinct socio-economic and political landscapes, offer diverse approaches to energy transition. While the urgency of energy transition is universally recognised, the strategies to achieve it are far from uniform.

The study’s data reiterates this divide, highlighting that less than half of executives are confident in their nation’s decarbonisation strategies, and 10% or less consider their region/country to be “advanced, fully integrated, full-scale” on the major energy goals of the infrastructure transition.

Decarbonising the world’s energy systems requires an overhaul of the infrastructure supporting it. And this is a multi-decade, $275 trillion shift in how we generate, distribute and consume electrical power, on top of the industrial processes, buildings, transport, governance, systems and structures that keep the world functioning.

Someone has to be responsible for advancing the infrastructure transition. When asked to allocate percentages by groups, regulatory authorities ranked highest at 31%, then the owners of assets, investors/shareholders at 25%, businesses at 17%, politicians at 13%, and citizens at 13%. The challenge is that each of these is interdependent, which calls for more action and better leadership.

SPHERE 2: THE URBAN ODYSSEY

Cities are on the front line in the battle against climate change. As urban populations boom, so does the demand for efficient transportation, building and energy systems. Yet even as cities recognise decarbonisation as a competitive advantage, they grapple with the very real challenges of implementing wide-scale changes within their complex infrastructures.

Let’s look at the figures: For electrification and decarbonisation of heating and cooling, 24% of survey respondents consider it as mature or advanced; 22% for city-wide smart grid implementation; and 21% for the expansion and integration of renewable energy.

Then there is the debate around electric vehicles, the infrastructure required to support them, and the rebates to use them—all of which are now highly politicised. And where there could be quick wins like mobility-as-a-service, the digitalisation of essential services, and better use of 5G and the cloud, the wheel of progress seems to be stuck in third gear.

To tackle the issue head-on, cities need to become more co-ordinated in their efforts. Public-private partnerships must become the norm and citizens must feel involved; the data from smart systems must be used to make smart decisions and leadership needs to become more decisive.

SPHERE 3: CRAFTING TOMORROW’S EDIFICES

The industrial sector is under immense pressure to decarbonise its business models, assets and infrastructure.

To achieve these goals, it is also a sector that needs diverse funding resources, better risk management, skills development, supply chain innovation, regulatory collaboration and better deployment and adoption of digital, automated, and data-driven solutions.

This is also a sector where socio-economic factors have the most impact. And with only 17% of the executives surveyed confident their revenue or profitability will grow in the year ahead—we have a chicken and egg scenario.

Executives know that decarbonisation will cost less in the long run. Still, the coffers are not in a position to support the immediate investment, while the one factor more than any other that threatens to stall the energy transition is a recession.

An important step for industry is improving the energy efficiency of buildings, which is also critical, as according to the World Green Building Council, buildings contribute 39% of energy-related carbon emissions.

The obvious choice is to retrofit existing buildings with modern solutions, but supply chain challenges are playing a significant factor in holding back progress, with 46% of the executives stating they are likely to accelerate decarbonisation in the next year also saying that the one thing that will stall this is the inability to secure the equipment needed to do so.

BOTTOM LINE

No matter how you look at it, infrastructure transition is urgent and the consequences of delay are severe. Global warming needs to be reversed or, at the very least, slowed down so we can become more resilient to climate change.

This will happen through the rapid transformation of infrastructure at scale and better and greater alignment, collaboration and standardisation. Globally we are sitting on a treasure trove of technology and digitalisation solutions to help the process. Yet, they are not being leveraged to their full potential due to various concerns, from cost to expertise.

With the current rate of progress, achieving global decarbonisation goals becomes increasingly challenging. As stakeholders in this monumental transition, the path forward needs harmonized action as it is no longer just about recognising the importance of the transition; it is about unified, strategic and immediate action. •

The Jolt: Tesla’s Chinese fortunes hang in EU balance

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Introducing The Jolt, a new series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, which will keep you updated on all the essential energy transition stories

This is where The Jolt comes in. Tune in on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

We kick off with a look at the major global climate and energy news stories.

What you need to know

Here are some of the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

China could peak its CO2 emissions this year and start reducing them in 2024 thanks to record clean energy growth, according to a new study. Decarbonisation efforts still need to contend with coal power expansion though and the two issues will surely come to a head in the coming months.
The United Kingdom will reportedly launch a carbon border tax in 2026 with an announcement due later this month. The planned system will likely closely mirror the European Union’s CBAM instrument.
A giant wind farm could meet all of the Isle of Man’s power needs, according to Danish firm Ørsted, which plans to lodge planning permission for the site in 2025. One hundred turbines off the coast of the Irish Sea island would generate enough to meet peak demand with plenty of surplus left over. It could be fully online by 2030.
More than 80,000 people joined what is being called the largest ever climate march ever staged in the Netherlands. The mass protest hit the streets of Amsterdam ahead of a general election scheduled for November 22nd.
The European Union’s flagship research project—Horizon Europe—will have a budget of €12.9 billion in 2024, an €85 million increase on this year.
Australia’s main grid ran on 72.9% renewable power for a brief period this weekend, marking yet another clean energy milestone. In the state of Victoria, power needs were met by 95% renewables during a five-minute-long window. Victoria aims for 95% clean power year-round by 2035.
Peru is enacting new environmental and health standards in order to try and attract more than $1 billion in investments into its mining and energy industries. Peru is the second-largest global supplier of copper, a crucial material for energy applications.
Oil and gas major Exxon will move into the lithium mining business in 2026 and will publish a lithium strategy later today (November 13th). The fossil fuel giant will start off by operating a mine in the US state of Arkansas.
A Ukrainian military officer handled logistics for the operation that sabotaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines, according to reporting by the Washington Post. Colonel Roman Chervinsky ran the operation but did not plan it, claim sources contacted by the paper. Check out this episode of The Jolt all about international energy links.
Singaporean researchers have developed technology that can harvest energy from falling rain drops using materials sourced from old DVDs and CDs. The research team say that the tech could be mounted on windows, personal items like raincoats and umbrellas, or even on plants.

Today’s big story

Tesla’s Chinese fortunes hang in EU balance

Image MidJourney / Prompts FORESIGHT.

The European Union is worried that China will undermine its efforts to be a global player in electric car manufacturing by distorting the market with cheap vehicles produced using massive state subsidies.
A probe into Chinese EV imports has just kicked off and the EU is looking to determine the size of the problem and what needs to be done to address what Brussels officials insist is an unfair playing field.
As part of the initial inquest, the EU is assessing three Chinese manufacturers but US carmaker Tesla is not a part of the sample, despite exporting more EVs than anyone else from China to Europe.
Tesla is worried that the findings of the sample will result in default punitive duties for all China-based exporters, punishing it for subsidies that it has not necessarily received.

“Europe is open for competition but not a race to the bottom”

European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen says dialogue with China will remain open and that the mantra of “derisking, not decoupling” is still true despite this probe.
Commission spokesperson Olof Gill explains that the inquest cannot last longer than 13 months but that preliminary duties can be applied after nine months, meaning the first tangible results might be seen in July 2024.

While you’re here, check out our latest deep dive on Zimbabwe and its foray into the murky world of carbon credit trading, as well as this op-ed on how to make hydrogen production cheaper.

Audio credit: European Commission archive.

Email us at thejolt@foresightdk.com

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Sam Morgan LinkedIn / Twitter

The hybrid answer to Europe’s renewable project bottlenecks

The Jolt: All about the base

Elevate your listening experience, try our app – iOS / Android

Introducing The Jolt, a new series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, which will keep you updated on all the essential energy transition stories

This is where The Jolt comes in. Tune in on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

We kick off with a look at the major global climate and energy news stories.

What you need to know

Here are some of the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

Germany will support its industrial sector with €28 billion in tax subsidies between now and 2028. Electricity taxes will be dropped to the lowest level allowed by European law, although industry groups are still sceptical about whether it will be enough.
European Union negotiators have struck a deal on a new law aimed at restoring nature. Countries will have to restore 30% of habitats covered by the legislation by 2030 and 90% of them by 2050. More details here.
More than 60 countries support a global pledge to triple renewable energy capacity, reports news agency Reuters. The initiative will be launched at the COP28 summit in Dubai later this month. Talks with China and India about joining the pledge are also “at an advanced stage”.
Wopke Hoekstra, the EU’s top climate official, will meet his Chinese counterpart in Beijing next week for pre-COP talks.
The United States has launched “Project Phoenix”, which aims to help Central and Eastern European countries switch from coal power to small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) technology. More details from the US Department of Energy here.
Despite this, a flagship SMR project in the state of Utah has been scrapped, after utilities that had agreed to buy power from the scheme were scared off by rising costs and delays. Initially scheduled to be online in 2026, the reactors had already been pushed back to 2029.
The state of Michigan passed on the US’ most ambitious clean energy bills, which will obligate the power grid to be carbon-free by 2040. Sixty percent of electricity should come from renewables by 2034.
Indonesia has inaugurated Southeast Asia’s biggest floating solar power plant. Initially capable of providing 145 megawatts (MW) of green power, expansion could ramp that up to 1000 MW. Check out Wednesday’s Jolt for more on Indonesia’s energy transition.
And Australia has signed a landmark climate and security pact with Tuvalu, a Pacific island nation that is the world’s fourth smallest country. Tuvalu’s citizens will be given preferential access to visas to allow them to relocate when the effects of climate change worsen. Economic support will also be provided in return for not striking security partnerships with other countries.

Today’s big story

All about the base

Image MidJourney / Prompts FORESIGHT.

Baseload power is one of the main tenets of most national energy policies. Enough electricity needs to be available 24 hours a day in order to meet minimum energy demand.
But the ramp up of solar power is undermining the case for baseload, as cheap green electrons with no marginal costs force baseload providers like coal, gas and nuclear out of the power merit order.
This means that the so-called “duck curve”—a visual representation of how great quantities of solar power changes daily energy demand—will make the business case for new and even existing baseload power plants more complex.
FORESIGHT correspondent Jason Deign has written in-depth about this issue and you can read the full article on foresightdk.com. To help whet appetites for the piece and explain a little more the background to the issue, Jason joined today’s show.

“Nuclear’s already having a problem with its economics. Now, solar is coming along and pushing it out of the merit order”

Spain is one example of a country where solar is making a big impact on the energy system and where nuclear faces a rather bleak future as a result. Germany is phasing out nuclear so will not be so affected.
France, meanwhile, already has so much nuclear online that atomic power specialists insist the fleet will be able to keep up with solar and deal with its impact on the sector.

While you’re here, check out the latest edition of Watt Matters—a special live episode—and stay tuned for next week’s episode of the Policy Dispatch, delving into the complex case of Moldova.

Email us at thejolt@foresightdk.com

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Sam Morgan LinkedIn / Twitter

Zimbabwe’s carbon credits plan reflects Africa’s errors, chaos and optimism

The Jolt: Indonesia asks the $20 billion question

Elevate your listening experience, try our app – iOS / Android

Introducing The Jolt, a new series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, which will keep you updated on all the essential energy transition stories

This is where The Jolt comes in. Tune in on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

We kick off with a look at the major global climate and energy news stories.

What you need to know

Here are some of the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

Portugal’s prime minister has resigned after he was implicated in an ongoing corruption probe into energy contracts. Investigators are looking into whether there was foul play in the award of lithium mining and hydrogen deals. A snap election is now likely.
China unveiles a new plan to monitor and crack down on methane emissions. The world’s largest emitter of the planet-warming gas, China has not indicated how it will actually reduce those emissions and has still not signed up to the global methane pledge, which was launched two years ago.
India has signed a $200 million loan deal with the World Bank so that its northernmost state, Himachal Pradesh, can green its power sector by 2030. The plan aims to up renewable energy levels from 80% to 100% by the end of the decade.
Scotland’s devolved government has delayed publishing an update to its climate plan, insisting that a rollback of net-zero commitments by the central UK government in London had messed with its timeline.
Also in the UK, King Charles III, a well-known environmentalist, confirmed in a speech to mark the opening of a new parliament session that the UK energy regulator will be legally obliged to hold annual oil and gas exploration auctions, according to new government plans.
Morocco’s energy ministry is looking for developers to design, fund, construct and operate two transmission lines that will link the energy-rich south with power-hungry regions in the middle of the country. The lines should both be up and running 2028.
Namibia breaks ground on the world’s first green iron project. As part of an agreement between the Namibian and German government’s, iron will be produced using 100% renewable power.
Latin America and the Caribbean will increase their emissions under a business-as-usual scenario, the International Energy Agency says in a first-of-its-kind new report. Check the details here.
The European Union will soon launch a small modular nuclear reactor alliance, in a bid to commercialise the nascent technology. Work is ongoing to get the alliance ready after 11 EU countries, including France and Poland, asked the European Commission to set up the initiative.

Today’s big story

Indonesia asks the $20 billion question

Image MidJourney / Prompts FORESIGHT.

Indonesia is the world’s tenth largest emitter and its fourth most populous country. Its economy is growing and so are its emissions but there is an appetite to rein in greenhouse gases and advance the energy transition.
In 2022, the European Union, United States and other G20 countries agreed to set up a partnership with Indonesia worth $20 billion to kickstart that energy transition, by helping Indonesia clean up its power sector and reduce its massive coal power fleet.
But the money has not yet started flowing, donor governments are struggling to get budget approvals and private sector players are worried that policies will change once the current president, Joko Widodo, leaves office next year.
Indonesia published its just transition investment plan last week and is now in the consultation phase. It includes a breakdown of where the $20 billion will go and targets for clean energy deployment and coal phaseout.

“Indonesia is a large country and the challenge is great: coal still holds primary share in the electricity mix”

Katherine Hasan, an Indonesia analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, says that the opportunity posed by the partnership is massive and that the transition in Indonesia will have not just domestic benefits but global ones.
She adds that the investment plan published by the government is a good start but that more improvements can be made, including more ambitious clean energy targets and commitments about captive coal power—power plants that are not connected to the grid but which are used in industrial processes.
President Wikodo will meet with US counterpart Joe Biden this weekend, where the $20 billion question will be raised, as well as potential exemptions under the Inflation Reduction Act. Indonesia wants to benefit from subsidies offered to producers that fall within the electric vehicle value chain, in particular its market-leading nickel industry.

While you’re here, check out the latest edition of Watt Matters, a special live episode that looks into how public procurement of energy could help clean up the transport sector.

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How to cut the cost of water electrolysis

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The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

Cost reductions in electrolyser technology can be achieved on several fronts

It is increasingly clear that the energy transition will require large amounts of low-carbon hydrogen to replace fossil fuels in a range of industries.

Traditionally-made hydrogen, generated via steam methane reforming (SMR) has a significant carbon footprint, but there are various ways of making the gas with lower emissions.

The one that holds the most promise is “green” hydrogen, made from the electrolysis of water powered by electricity from renewable energy sources. Green hydrogen is free of emissions and could scale to limitless levels, given enough renewable energy capacity.

The challenge with it today is that it is relatively expensive.

BloombergNEF, to take just one piece of research, estimates that green hydrogen today could cost anywhere between $4 and $11 per kilogram to produce. This compares to $1 to $3 per kilogram for traditional or “grey” hydrogen. Plus, it is more expensive than another low-carbon contender, blue hydrogen, which is made by trapping the carbon from SMR and costs between $2 and $5 per kilogram.

FALLING COSTS

To achieve its full potential, green hydrogen needs to cut costs significantly.

The good news is that most of this cut will come from reductions in the cost of renewable energy. As much as 65% of the levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH)—how much it costs to produce a kilo of hydrogen once investments and operating expenses are factored in—relates to the price of electricity.

This is fortunate because the cost of wind and solar power has seen spectacular reductions in recent decades, stalling only in the last couple of years as post-Covid-19-pandemic demand pushed up the price of commodities used in panels and turbines. The International Energy Agency expects the downward pricing trend will resume from 2023.

Further reductions in LCOH could come from other capital and operational cost factors in electrolysis. The capital cost of projects, which mainly relates to the electrolyser and related assets, contributes to around 25% of LCOH, while operational expenditure—on maintenance, water and so on—makes up the final 10%.

SCOPE FOR SAVINGS

This means electrolyser cost reductions will be able to address just over a third of the total cost of green hydrogen, which is significant enough to warrant serious attention. Electrolyser manufacturers see plenty of opportunities for cost reduction.

Operating costs could go down with access to spare parts, longer-lasting components, the use of preventive maintenance and efficiency improvements to the electrolysis stack, for example by using new membrane materials. Such materials could achieve increased conductivity and enhanced temperature durability, while catalytic improvements could reduce energy losses associated with the electrolysis process.

Capital expenditure (Capex), meanwhile, could go down through manufacturing scale, and electrolyser unit costs can be significantly reduced through standardisation. The use of standard components not only facilitates assembly and helps improve quality and reliability but can also help reduce costs along the supply chain by allowing component manufacturers to scale more easily.

STANDARDISATION KEY

This has been proven in other clean technology industries, from solar photovoltaics to onshore wind and lithium-ion batteries. As the green hydrogen industry grows, the level of standardisation will grow too. For now, the market is indeed populated by a wide range of technologies and design approaches.

A certain amount of standardisation is already present in the alkaline electrolyser market, which is the most mature and widespread technology. Another benefit of alkaline electrolysis is that it does not rely on rare earth materials that could face supply bottlenecks, affecting prices.

Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis is suitable for green hydrogen production but relies on rare-earth anode and cathode materials and could therefore face challenges in cost reduction. There is also concern that a proposed European Chemicals Agency ban on polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) or “forever chemicals” could affect some electrolysers as they are often reliant on fluoropolymer-coated membranes.

The reason PEM is sometimes chosen for green hydrogen projects is that it works well with the variable renewable power supply that you typically get from wind and solar generation. However, it is not the only electrolyser technology that can achieve this.

UNDER PRESSURE

A further line of research and development focuses on the fact that most of the green hydrogen produced by electrolysis will need to be pressurised before it can be moved or stored.

This pressurisation requires energy, so electrolysis approaches that produce hydrogen under pressure—and not all do—will naturally be more efficient and cost-effective. Pressurisation costs do not rise linearly with pressure; instead, the first few atmospheres are the hardest to achieve and at higher pressures, the energy requirements and costs are lower.

Electrolysers do not need to pressurise hydrogen much to have a significant impact on cost. Smaller electrolysers can have outlet pressures of around 30 bars, while larger prototype electrolysers deliver 35 bars of pressure.

Plant developers should stay abreast of such cost-related innovations, as well as look for ways to simplify and cheapen project integration and design. The path to reducing the cost of green hydrogen to competitive levels is very clear and electrolyser manufacturers are treading it already.

The Jolt: Carbon markets are ready to takeoff

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Introducing The Jolt, a new series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, which will keep you updated on all the essential energy transition stories

This is where The Jolt comes in. Tune in on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

We kick off with a look at the major global climate and energy news stories.

What you need to know

Here are some of the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

Talks to set up a new loss and damage climate fund ended in an acrimonious deal on Saturday. Developed nations insisted the new fund will be hosted at the World Bank, an idea loathed by developing countries, who managed to get it time-limited to four years. Check out this recent episode of The Jolt for more info on the fund.
India’s government is considering charging exporters that will be covered by the European Union’s carbon border tax, so that the levies raised can be spent on decarbonisation projects at home. CBAM charges will not be slapped on products that have already been subject to some sort of carbon pricing.
Denmark has a new Power-to-X facility that uses hydrogen and waste CO2 from a biogas plant to produce synthetic methane. Click here for more details on how the project came about.
German firm Bosch will invest €100 million in a Portuguese heat pump factory as part of a wider €1 billion pledge to expand its production network. The Portuguese investment is expected to create hundreds of new jobs.
Malta will spend €1 million every day next year in energy subsidies, according to its prime minister. The planned €350 million investment in 2024 will reportedly shield Maltese families from having to pay an extra €8 per day on utility bills.
The UK government intends to hold annual fossil fuel exploration auctions, in a bid to safeguard jobs and energy security. Sector experts say that it will struggle to fulfil either of those goals and that new oil and gas is not compatible with global climate goals.
Suriname wants to attract international investors to help develop its reserves of bauxite, the world’s main source of aluminium. An integral ingredient in many energy transition technologies, like power generators, electricity transmission and batteries, aluminium is set to be in high demand in the coming decades.
And a new energy startup, Valar Atomics, aims to use nuclear-powered direct-air capture technology to suck CO2 out of the air and to combine it with atomic-forged hydrogen to create synthetic fuels. Check out the details here.

Today’s big story

Carbon markets are ready to takeoff

Image MidJourney / Prompts FORESIGHT.

The EU’s 2050 net-zero target has dictated the rest of its climate and energy policies since it was first proposed in 2018. As the world changes, geopolitics rewrites maps and clean energy technology bucks all expectations, is it time to bring the target date forward?
Carbon markets are a crucial cog in the energy transition machine, driving down emissions by putting a price on greenhouse gases. There are many examples of them around the world, with several countries seriously considering setting up their own.
Last week, the European Commission issued its report on the EU’s emissions trading system (ETS), insisting that it is working as expected and that power and industry emissions have been cut by 37.5% since 2005.
But since reaching a record high of €100 per tonne in February, the price has since gone down and is now below €80. This is because of the fundamentals that drive the price, says carbon analyst Yan Qin from Refinitiv.

“The Chinese regulators see that the China ETS price has gone too fast”

The average price for the year is still higher than 2022’s and it is expected to recover further once factors like demand and supply are rebalanced. Projections show the price breaching €100 on a permanent basis by 2030 and quadrupling further down the line.
China is pressing on with its new carbon market as well. Increasing prices have forced regulators to stamp on the brakes slightly, while an upcoming update of what sectors are covered looks set to reflect changes imposed by the EU’s carbon border tax.

Check out our latest deep dives on baseload power and hybrid power projects.

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Green Delta

In the public eye

The case for baseload is being undermined

The Jolt: Time to bring net-zero forward?

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Introducing The Jolt, a new series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, which will keep you updated on all the essential energy transition stories

This is where The Jolt comes in. Tune in on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

We kick off with a look at the major global climate and energy news stories.

What you need to know

Here are some of the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

Danish energy company Ørsted has cancelled two US offshore projects, citing tax credit and supply chain issues. Its share price tumbled 26% and credit raters are considering a downgrade.
US energy firm Duke Energy is breaking ground on a new project that will include the production, storage and combustion of green hydrogen all within one facility. It is due online next year.
Portugal powered its electricity grid with 100% renewables this past weekend. Wind and hydropower allowed the Iberian country to meet all of its demand with enough left over to export to Spain.
German finance minister Christian Lindner says a planned 2030 coal phaseout date should be pushed back if there is not enough affordable energy available. He has also called for more renewables and domestic gas production.
Denmark and Vietnam signed up to a green energy partnership, which will include knowledge-sharing, potential technology transfers and financial support. Danish wind energy know-how will be among the most valuable assets.
Kazakhstan signed up to Japan’s joint crediting mechanism (JCM), which will see the Japanese government support decarbonisation efforts in the Central Asian nation. In return, Japan will receive emissions credits to count towards its own green targets.
China’s pledge to scale back its funding of overseas coal power projects is starting to come good, according to a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Up to 4.1 billion tonnes of CO2 has been avoided thanks to measures implemented since 2021.
Singapore completed a nearly-two-year-long sustainable aviation fuel trial and will now develop a plan on how to commercialise it. Check out this episode of The Jolt, which looks a little deeper into aviation.
And in Australia, the world’s first battery-powered heavy-haul locomotive will be put to work transporting iron ore. With a seven megawatt-hour capacity and regenerative braking, the engine will be used in tandem with diesel trains and is due to enter service in late 2024.

Today’s big story

Time to bring net-zero forward?

Image MidJourney / Prompts FORESIGHT.

The EU’s 2050 net-zero target has dictated the rest of its climate and energy policies since it was first proposed in 2018. As the world changes, geopolitics rewrites maps and clean energy technology bucks all expectations, is it time to bring the target date forward?
On Monday, we asked you whether you think it is feasible for the European Union to bring forward its 2050 net-zero climate target. Across two separate polls, over half of you voted “no”.
Brook Riley, head of EU affairs at Rockwool, says it is a debate worth having and although there is a lack of political appetite right now for more ambition, upcoming talks about what a 2040 target should look like could prove to be crucial.

“We’re in the doldrums when it comes to climate action and ambition”

He adds that before the 2050 target was agreed, the idea of net-zero policymaking within the EU also seemed unfeasible. But in just five years, that has changed dramatically.
The European Environmental Bureau’s Luke Haywood explains that modelling shows the target can be brought forward to 2040, by ramping up energy efficiency, reducing demand and building out renewables at a quicker pace.

Check out the latest episode of the Policy Dispatch, which focuses on Brazil, as well as our new deep-dive article on why the case for baseload power is being undermined by solar PV.

Audio clip credits:

European Commission audiovisual service

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Understanding electricity prices

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From FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, Energy Enablers is a podcast in which we speak to those who are making a difference in the race to a decarbonised economy.

For the best possible audio experience, listen to Energy Enablers in the FORESIGHT app. This requires a membership to FORESIGHT Climate & Energy. If you want to know if your company/organisation is a member of FORESIGHT and would like a reminder of your login details, email info@foresightdk.com.

Joining David Weston on Energy Enablers is joined by Viggo Aavang, vice president of power solutions at Danish renewables developer Better Energy.

Viggo tells David why electricity prices remain high despite the growing influence of renewables on today’s western grids and how these markets are adapting to the rise of new price models like power purchase agreements (PPAs) and Contracts for Difference (CfDs) •

If you have any thoughts or questions about anything that has been discussed in this week’s episode, you can reach us at our social media accounts:

Viggo Aavang
David Weston
EnergyEnablers
FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

Listen and subscribe to Energy Enablers wherever you get podcasts. Follow us on Twitter at @EnergyEnablers or email us at show@energyenablers.com. You can also find FORESIGHT Climate & Energy on LinkedIn.

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Understanding buildings decarbonisation

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From FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, Energy Enablers is a podcast in which we speak to those who are making a difference in the race to a decarbonised economy.

In this week’s Energy Enablers, David Weston speaks to Lisette van Doorn, CEO of ULI Europe, a nonprofit research and education organisation focused on land use and real estate development disciplines.

In this episode, Lisette warns that the real estate sector is not factoring in the cost of doing nothing when valuing their assets.

As buyers and building users become more aware of the carbon footprint of a building, owners will need to consider the green credentials of their property when valuing it. Less efficient buildings are going to fall in value. •

If you have any thoughts or questions about anything that has been discussed in this week’s episode, you can reach us at our social media accounts:
Lisette van Doorn
David Weston
EnergyEnablers
FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

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Brazilian redemption

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From FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, Policy Dispatch is a podcast all about the policies that underpin the global energy transition.

Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world and also it’s fifth largest emitter, predominantly because of deforestation. Home to 216 million people and rich in natural resources, Brazil is growing fast but still struggles with immense socio-economic divides. That makes its approach to climate and energy issues somewhat unique and particularly challenging.

Sam is joined for this episode by Claudio Angelo from Climate Observatory, a network of 77 NGOs based in Brazil. The discussion ranges from how Brazil’s recent change of government will impact its decarbonisation efforts to more detailed issues like carbon markets and trade talks. Can Brazil come back from the brink and engage with or even lead global climate action? Tune in to find out.

Thanks for listening, enjoy the show!

If you have any thoughts or questions about anything that has been discussed in this week’s episode, you can reach us at our Twitter accounts:

Claudio Angel
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@Policy Dispatch
Kira Taylor
FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

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The Jolt: Norway feeling blue about the EU

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Introducing The Jolt, a new series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, which will keep you updated on all the essential energy transition stories

This is where The Jolt comes in. Tune in on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

We kick off with a look at the major global climate and energy news stories.

What do you think?

We want to hear your views on the energy transition. On Friday’s episode we will discuss the result of an ongoing poll on a particular green issue. Please vote either here or here.

What you need to know

Here are some of the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

The US government has announced $1.3 billion in funding for three power transmission projects that will run across state lines. An in-depth study also published says that interregional transmission must double by 2035. Check out this recent episode of The Jolt for more on why grids are such a hot topic at the moment.
Panama will hold a referendum on December 17th on whether a Canadian firm should be given a 20-year contract to operate a copper mine. Thousands of people have been protesting against the environmental and economic impact of the deal.
Indonesia has unveiled plans to cut carbon emissions and increase renewable energy in order to access $20 billion as part of a partnership with G7 countries.
Ukraine could store gas reserves for the European Union, as capacity nears its limit in the bloc. Cheap rates and no customs duties make it an attractive option. EU countries are also turning to floating LNG tankers to store their reserves.
The EU has published its updated renewable energy directive in its official journal. This means that in 20 days it will become law. Delve into the details here.
A German offshore wind farm has signed a power purchase agreement with a green hydrogen production facility. The “first of its kind” deal will see 62.5% of electricity output sold to the hydrogen plant.
A hydrogen pipeline between the Persian Gulf and Europe is feasible, a new study says, and that 2.5 million tonnes of green and carbon-capture-powered blue hydrogen could be transported every year.
Israel has issued 12 offshore oil and gas permits to six international energy companies. Scientific consensus and the United Nations are categorical in saying that new oil and gas is not compatible with global climate goals.

Today’s big story

Norway feeling blue about the EU

Image MidJourney / Prompts FORESIGHT.

Norway must abide by certain EU rules thanks to its membership of the European Economic Area. This includes energy legislation, which has caused a political spat in the Nordic country.
A member of the ruling government coalition says it will quit if the latest round of EU energy and climate rules are added to Norway’s legal codex. A ruling by the country’s supreme court this week said that the government is legally entitled to proceed.
Norway is Europe’s most important energy partner following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its big rethink of where power and fuel is sourced. This applies mostly to fossil fuels but is gradually becoming more and more about clean energy imports.
Rich in hydropower in particular, Norway can provide cheap, green energy and, perhaps more crucially, offer flexibility and storage for the power market. As more renewables come online this will be a massive resource.

“We want to use our electricity here, we don’t want to necessarily sell it off ”

The Norwegian Institute of International Affairs’ Kacper Szulecki points out that Norwegians do not necessarily agree that their country should be the “green battery of Europe”, instead they believe that the resources should be used to produce other goods like steel and aluminium.
He adds that the ongoing political dispute over EU-influence on Norwegian energy policy will likely continue and that issues like the jurisdiction of ACER—the EU’s energy regulator agency—are still a big part of the domestic debate.

Check out the latest episode of Watt Matters, which digs into how Poland’s recent election result will affect energy and climate thinking, and stay tuned for the next episode of the Policy Dispatch, which will focus on Brazil. Our latest deep-dive looks at how district heating is a natural ally of power-to-x technology.

Audio clip credits:

Monty Python Official YouTube

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District heating and Power-to-X make natural partners

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Repurposing waste heat from Power-to-X for district heating requires coordination to maximise these synergies

WASTE NOT WANT NOT Recovering waste heat from electrolysis processes provides a low-carbon source for district heating operators

SCANDINAVIA TRIALS Several PtX projects across Finland, Denmark and Norway have partnered with district heat network operators

KEY QUOTE The equipment or components required to integrate a green hydrogen production facility with a district heating network are relatively simple to implement

Losses happen when energy is converted from one form to another. This is fundamental. Power-to-X (PtX) plants consume electrical energy to generate chemical energy and heat. The resulting hydrogen molecules can be the building blocks to replace fossil fuels used in heavy industries, chemical processing and fuels for heavy transport, shipping and aviation. But often the heat is wasted.

The EU is expected to produce ten million tonnes of renewable hydrogen to meet part of its demand by 2030. Since around 25-35% of electrical energy supplied to PtX facilities is transformed into heat in the electrolysis part of the process, while other associated activities like compression also produce heat, there is a big opportunity to reuse all that hot air.

According to a Danish study by Euroheat & Power, a trade association, six gigawatts (GW) of installed PtX capacity would produce enough surplus heat to cover up to around 20% of district heating demand.

HAPPY COUPLING

“Green” hydrogen—and derivative products like ammonia—are more expensive to manufacture than “grey” or “blue” hydrogen. Securing revenue streams for heat and oxygen, both byproducts of electrolysis, enables green hydrogen developers to improve the return on investment of these plants. Ramboll, a Danish engineering firm, estimates that heat sale revenues could be up to 5% of a PtX facility’s total income.

Erik Rynning from Aker Horizon, a Norwegian PtX project developer, says the company is exploring reusing waste heat in district heating or industrial applications to improve the resource efficiency of its PtX projects, add an additional revenue source and enhance circularity.

Municipalities and district heating companies are also interested in PtX as they are planning ten years ahead, says Ramboll’s Eva Ravn Nielsen. “A large green hydrogen or PtX project in development nearby could influence how they invest in their district heating networks in future because it is potentially a supplier of low-cost waste heat,” she says.

HEAT TRIALS Helen is building a PtX electrolyser pilot in Vuosaari with the waste heat to be used in the company’s nearby district heating network

TECHNICAL CONSIDERATIONS

“From a technical perspective, the equipment or components required to integrate a green hydrogen production facility with a district heating network are relatively simple to implement,” Nielsen says.

The temperature of waste heat is, however, too low for district heating networks and needs to be boosted by a heat pump or electrical boiler. Other equipment such as heat exchangers, connections and some instrumentation, are also required.

Investment in any equipment that integrates the PtX plant with the district heating network for supplying the waste heat is usually borne by the PtX developer, which will also own this equipment.

Meanwhile, the receiving district heating company may need to be able to have control of the heat output, either automatically or manually, via a daily agreement with the PtX developer, as the heat will be one of several sources supplied to the network.

There also needs to be an agreement in place around risk sharing.

PIPE WORK Combining PtX and district heating networks takes advantage of synergies between the technologies

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION

To maximise the mutual benefits, the location of the assets is important. PtX facilities usually need to be located close to supplies of renewable electricity and water. To supply district heating, PtX projects should also be situated near the cities or other urban areas that have these networks in place or with plans to introduce them. This might limit the uptake.

While it will never be possible to integrate all the waste heat from PtX facilities, utilising it where possible will provide an additional opportunity to decarbonise heating and lower costs for consumers in the process.

“There is a case to be made for direction to come from central government that would encourage the siting of PtX plants near urban areas or communities with district heating networks. If a plant is too far away, it would become cost-prohibitive to install the infrastructure to transport the heat from a PtX plant over long distances to the district heating network,” says John Flørning, also from Ramboll.

Modelling potential of electrolysers for providing heat

Mӓlardalen University published a study that models heat from a 100 MW electrolyser, comparing alkaline and PEM technologies. The modelling is based on the Botnia Link H2 Project in Luleå, Sweden, which is in development.

A large-scale heat pump and a heat exchanger were included in the modelling to integrate the waste heat on the district heating network, while also providing cooling for the electrolyser stack. The study concluded that heat used from either PEM or alkaline systems is price competitive in comparison with other thermal energy sources.

Using hourly data from Luleå Energi, the results showed that 171,770 thermal megawatt-hours (MWhth) can be integrated on the DH network annually with a PEM electrolyser, while 226,220 MWhth can be integrated on the DH annually with an alkaline electrolyser.

The levelised cost of heat (LCoH) for the PEM electrolyser is SEK 0.218/kWhth and SEK 0.23/kWhth for the alkaline-connected system.

With fourth-generation district heating networks, the study predicted the LCoH can reach SEK 0.018/kWth for the PEM system and SEK 0.017/kWth for the alkaline electrolyser system.

LOW UPTAKE

In Norway, the potential for waste heat to supply district heating is large as it is rarely used in district heating networks today; waste incineration, biomass and, to a lesser extent, fossil fuels, provide the majority of sources for district heating.

Aker is working with local municipalities and agencies to explore opportunities for using the waste heat from its projects, including district heating. In Rjukan the company is developing a five-megawatt (MW) electrolyser. Aker is part of Circular Rjukan, an initiative that has been established to evaluate the potential to use waste heat and other circular economy opportunities.

“We have, together with Rjukan Business Development (Rjukan Næringsutvikling), been in dialogue with potential companies to look for synergies and business opportunities which may be viable in the future. We can also utilise the heat for district heating of buildings, contingent upon the local community establishing the necessary infrastructure,” says Rynning.

There are no district heating systems at Rjukan, but new residential areas are likely to be planned with district heating systems, he adds.

PtX projects hooking up with district heating networks
A number of projects that combine PtX electrolysis and district heating systems are underway in Europe, with Scandinavia leading the way:Denmark

In Fredericia, Everfuel’s PtX project, HySynergy, will supply a local district heating network, owned by TVIS via a 1.2-kilometre-long connection. The annual consumption demand of 1300 households will be supplied via an agreement between the companies.
European Energy is installing a pilot PtX plant located by the city of Esbjerg, Denmark. Excess heat from the process will be used for district heating to an equivalent of 200 households.
European Energy is also building a commercial-scale PtX facility, powered by solar, in Kassø, southern Denmark. During the process of converting hydrogen and carbon dioxide into e-methanol the PtX plant will generate excess heat, which will supply up to 3300 households in nearby Aabenraa, via an agreement with Aabenraa Fjernvarme.

Finland

Ren-Gas has announced a portfolio of PtX projects due online by 2027, which total 600 MW, including six schemes in Pori, Mikkeli, Kotka, Lahti, Tampere and Kerava, developed in cooperation with local energy companies. As well as producing renewable synthetic methane and green hydrogen, the surplus heat from each plant will supply local district heating networks with a collective annual output that amounts to several hundred gigawatt-hours.

Germany

At the former Cottbus-Drewitz airfield in the state of Brandenburg, H2Gen is developing a PtX project to produce sustainable aviation fuel and is aiming to provide residual heat from the processes into a nearby district heating network.

Sweden

Ørsted’s first commercial-scale PtX facility, FlagshipONE, is being installed on the grounds of the biomass-fired Hörneborgsverket combined heat and power plant in Örnsköldsvik, northern Sweden, which is operated by Övik Energi. Excess heat from the e-methanol production process will be delivered back to Övik Energi and integrated into its district heating supply.

PARTNERSHIPS IN FINLAND

In Finland, energy supplier and district heating network owner Tampereen Energia and PtX developer Ren-Gas are laying the groundwork for a district heating integrated electrolyser in Pirkanmaa, southwest Finland.

The project will be sited next to the Tarastenjärvi waste-from-energy heat and power plant, which is operated by Tammervoima, a joint venture between Tampereen Energia and local waste company Pirkanmaan Jätehuolto.

From 2026, when the planned 60 MW electrolyser becomes operational, the waste heat will be recovered and returned to Tammervoima for the district heating network, which supplies more than 5000 buildings and more than 230,000 residents.

Recovering the waste heat from electrolysis improves profitability, according to Jukka Joronen of Tampereen Energia. Tampereen Energia is owned by the City of Tampere and it has strict environmental targets, including ensuring that its heating supply is fully carbon neutral by 2030.

In other projects, Ren-Gas partners with municipal and regional energy companies which also own district heating networks. Its project in Kerava, located 30 kilometres from Helsinki in southern Finland, is sited with Keravan Energia’s bio-combined heat and power (CHP) plant, which will produce 12,000 tonnes of methane, 6000 tonnes of hydrogen and 150 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of heating from a 20 MW electrolyser.

Ren-Gas wants to build a PtX portfolio in Finland by 2030 that will deliver 20% of the e-fuels needed by the heavy road transportation sector and 8% of the Finnish district heating needs. This will replace 2.5 terawatt-hours of district heating produced by fossil fuel burning, the company predicts. Finland has banned the use of coal for energy from 2029.

Energy utility Helen is aiming for its energy production to be carbon-neutral by 2030. Earlier in 2023, Helen closed down its Hanasaari CHP plant in Helsinki. Helen is instead developing a 4 MW PtX electrolyser pilot in Vuosaari, in the eastern district of Helsinki, and the waste heat—about 13,000 megawatt-hours a year—will be used in the company’s district heating network.

A number of homes in Helsinki are already heated by the Vuosaari bioenergy heating plant, which burns wood chips obtained as a by-product of forestry. But by using heat pumps Helen can use different waste and environmental heat sources. The heat that will be produced by the Vuosaari electrolyser will be roughly 60-70°C degrees so the heat pump will boost the temperature to meet district heating requirements.

“Hydrogen [production] will support the electricity network through sector coupling and potential energy storage. The utilisation of waste heat from hydrogen production is also important, as it can save both energy and costs,” Helen’s Tuukka Hartikka says.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS

In Denmark, which has comparatively high levels of renewables penetration, any excess electricity is absorbed by heating networks installed with heat pumps and electric boilers. In the future, PtX facilities will also be able to absorb excess electricity.

“As heat demand varies throughout the year, with more heat needed in the winter than in the summer, seasonal storage can store some of the heat that is generated by green hydrogen production,” Hartikka says.

Ren-Gas says its PtX portfolio’s approximately 600 MW of electrolyser capacity is highly flexible to changes in electricity consumption, increasing demand flexibility in Finland’s electricity grid.

“For many years to come, buildout of renewable energy is in general the key to decarbonisation of our society. PtX plants will operate fairly constantly but also with a degree of flexibility so that they can capitalise on the lowest electricity prices when there is a lot of renewable generation on the grid,” Ramboll’s Ravn Nielsen says.

TEXT Sara Verbruggen PHOTOS MidJourney/FORESIGHT; Helen Oy

The Jolt: Spain’s plane vs. train pain

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Introducing The Jolt, a new series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, which will keep you updated on all the essential energy transition stories

This is where The Jolt comes in. Tune in on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

We kick off with a look at the major global climate and energy news stories.

What do you think?

We want to hear your views on the energy transition! That’s why today’s episode includes a poll on a crucial issue. You can find the links to our polls here and here.

The question today is:

The European Union is legally obliged to be climate neutral by 2050. Would it be feasible, from a political and technical standpoint, for the Union to bring that date forward to 2045 or even 2040 within the next 18 months?

What you need to know

Here are some of the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

The United Kingdom’s oil and gas regulator awarded 27 new exploration licences for the North Sea today. Shell, Equinor, TotalEnergies and BP were among the successful applicants. The government insists new fossil fuels are consistent with its net-zero 2050 commitment.
China installed 172 gigawatts of renewable energy so far this year alone, according to state regulators. Renewables’ share of power generation is up to 49.6% and officials say it now outstrips coal power. Solar PV is the biggest renewables source.
In Germany, energy giant Siemens Energy is in talks with banks and the German government about guarantees worth up to €16 billion. Its wind division has suffered losses and needs help. Check out last week’s episode on what the EU is doing to help the wider wind sector.
German chancellor Olaf Scholz is in Nigeria to strengthen bilateral ties, including energy cooperation and natural gas exports. Our recent deep-dive on Nigerian solar is well worth a read.
Malaysia’s state-owned energy firm Petronas is ready to invest $1.6 billion in an Indian green ammonia project in return for a 30% stake. The venture expects to start exporting ammonia within the next two years and reach five million tonnes by 2030.
California wants to ease the stress on its electrical grid by making its 1.3 million swimming pools more energy efficient. New rules mean that all new pools must come with equipment that adjusts energy usage to non-peak hours.
And Australia’s national science agency has reported a breakthrough in concentrated solar thermal storage. The agency says it reached 803℃ when testing ceramic tiles that will be used to trap heat and release it as energy. Researchers want to hit 1000℃.

Today’s big story

Spain’s plane vs. train pain

Image MidJourney / Prompts FORESIGHT.

Spain’s prospective government plans to ban domestic flights that have a rail alternative. If a train service of 2.5 hours serves the same route then the plane option could be nixed, according to a proposal that is still in the draft phase and which will require the ruling party to form a coalition.
The idea closely mirrors an existing ban in France that came into force in May 2023. The number of flights covered by the criteria is low, because connecting flights are exempted and requirements imposed on the equivalent rail services are tight. But it is a step in the right direction, according to climate groups.
Two of the three busiest domestic flight routes in Europe are in Spain and there is huge potential for emissions cuts. Regional politicians fear being cut off and the aviation sector warns that jobs are at risk and high-speed trains do not stop regularly enough at airports to make it viable.

“It’s definitely a step in the right direction but it’s nowhere near enough”

Greenpeace EU transport campaigner Tom Gelin says it is a good idea but that a six-hour cut off rather than 2.5 hours would be more appropriate. This would bring more routes into play and make a bigger difference to climate policies.
He adds that Germany and Italy would be the best next countries to follow suit but warns that a German scheme would need to have a higher cut off point and that Italy’s political climate makes it unlikely.
Belgium is currently working on a domestic private planes ban that would be another step in a similar direction. The UK has shown little appetite whatsoever, check out this episode of The Jolt for more details.

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The industrial sector can reduce carbon emissions by 11% by 2030

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The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

Industrial players must put energy efficiency at the top of their decarbonisation plans

The world’s industries could save more than four gigatonnes of greenhouse gas emissions a year by 2030 by maximising energy efficiency measures.

Four gigatonnes is roughly 11% of the global emissions forecast for the end of this decade and is equivalent to taking around three-fifths of the world’s internal combustion engine vehicles off the road.

Almost half the emissions savings could be achieved by 2025—so in just the next couple of years—and the measures would produce an estimated $437 billion in savings by 2030.

FIRST FUEL

The figures support the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) contention that energy efficiency should be viewed as “the first fuel” to be employed before any other decarbonisation measures.

Energy is a massive running cost for most industries, so it is natural they should seek to minimise wastage. What many industry leaders may not realise is that there is still plenty more they can do.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change admitted in its 2023 synthesis report that: “Global warming is more likely than not to reach 1.5°C even under the very low GHG [greenhouse gas] emission scenario.”

More recently, consultancy firm DNV’s annual energy transition outlook predicted the carbon budget needed to stay within 1.5°C will be exhausted by 2029, and by the end of the century we will still be 2.2°C above pre-industrial levels.

Given the dire climate impacts we are already seeing at half this level of warming, it is clear we need to increase our decarbonisation ambitions significantly, and now—not in a decade or two’s time.

Yet doubling energy efficiency by 2030 could cut greenhouse gas emissions by almost a third compared to today’s levels, according to the IEA.

NO ALTERNATIVES

In electricity generation, renewables are beating fossil fuels on cost and installation rates, and transport, too, is embracing electrification—but industrial decarbonisation is complex because of the lack of a clear alternative to fossil fuels.

The process of decarbonising industry is also complicated by the fact that industrial infrastructure is costly and lasts decades. It cannot easily be thrown out and replaced by lower-emissions versions.

This might make it seem like industrial leaders can do little to reduce emissions in the short term, but the answer is something industry is already used to but could still do a lot more of—being more energy efficient.

All industry needs to eliminate more than a tenth of the world’s emissions is not a new fuel or some other as-yet-unclear breakthrough, but a simple acknowledgement that energy efficiency deserves board-level backing.

PRACTICAL FRAMEWORK

The Energy Efficiency Movement has collated a playbook with ten recommendations for industrial players to improve their energy efficiency, none of which rely on upcoming technology or ground-breaking policy shifts.

Providing a practical framework for the development of energy efficiency strategies, the guide aims to help industry leaders make meaningful contributions to decarbonisation without significantly impacting operations and profits.

The ten actions are as simple as getting someone to audit your energy consumption, making sure equipment is correctly sized for its intended application or adding monitoring systems to your industrial processes.

Perhaps the most ambitious recommendations are to start using smart building management systems and to move data into the cloud—measures that many industrial players might already be mulling in any case.

The EEM is looking to raise awareness of the benefits of energy efficiency not only through its latest guide but also through wider knowledge-sharing efforts.

Industrial players could play a major role in achieving this breakthrough, something to bear in mind as companies seek to demonstrate leadership in decarbonisation at COP28 in the United Arab Emirates.

The Jolt: Risky connections

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Introducing The Jolt, a new series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, which will keep you updated on all the essential energy transition stories

This is where The Jolt comes in. Tune in on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

We kick off with a look at the major global climate and energy news stories.

What you need to know

Here are some of the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

Spain could ban short-haul domestic flights after political parties agreed to look into scrapping routes that are served by a train link. The plan is part of a prospective coalition agreement. Details are still thin on the ground but depending on what criteria are used, it could affect the Madrid-Barcelona route, one of the busiest domestic services in Europe.
Bulgaria has started construction on its third nuclear reactor using brand new technology provided by US firm Westinghouse. It is due online by 2033 and a fourth reactor is also planned. Greece has signalled interest in investing in the project in return for electricity imports.
The United Kingdom’s government will decide later this year whether to allow the blending of hydrogen into existing gas networks. A consultation on the initiative closes today.
Also in the UK, the Energy Act received royal assent is now law. The national electricity and gas regulator has been given a net-zero remit as a result. The act also establishes a carbon capture framework and includes a new scheme to boost sustainable aviation fuels.
Tanzania will receive $19 million from the UN and a top climate fund to pay for a new project aimed at restoring degraded ecosystems and improving conditions for refugees. The scheme will restore 260,000 hectares of forest and will benefit more than half a million people.
The United States has appointed a climate denier as the new speaker of the house. Mike Johnson is a long-time ally of the fossil fuel industry and will be the most vocal sceptic of climate consensus to ever hold the office, according to The Hill.
And an EU inquest into Chinese state support for electric car manufacturers has kicked off with an initial probe into three e-carmakers. Despite shipping more EVs from China to Europe than anybody else, Tesla is not included in this first step.

Today’s big story

Risky connections

Image MidJourney / Prompts FORESIGHT.

Undersea energy connectors are projects worth hundreds of millions, sometimes billions of euros. They are crucial for the prospects of the energy transition but are increasingly at risk from the effects of geopolitics.
Last year, the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea were sabotaged and an inquest into the culprits has still not publicly issued any conclusions. It prompted a massive rethink by Germany in particular, about where to source its energy.
This month, a pipeline between Estonia and Finland, plus a telecoms cable between Estonia and Sweden were both severely damaged. Investigations are ongoing and deliberate sabotage has not yet been ruled out.
This week, the CEO of Italian gas network operator SNAM announced that maritime patrols and other security measures had been stepped up in regard to its three connections with the Balkan Peninsula and North Africa. More details here.
Research fellow Francesco Sassi, who is an expert in the geopolitics of energy markets, says that this reflects a new reality triggered by the Nord Stream incident and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

“How much are you willing to invest in infrastructure that is under constant security threat?”

Sassi adds that these renewed geopolitical considerations will certainly play on the minds of companies and governments when investment decisions need to be made about new infrastructure projects.
Military forces and alliances, including NATO, are already collaborating with energy companies to help secure critical infrastructure, so there is likely to be more of the same when it comes to existing pipes and cables.

Check out the latest episode of Watt Matters, which digs into how Poland’s recent election result will affect energy and climate thinking, and stay tuned for a new article on district heating.

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Poland’s new green dawn?

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From FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, Watt Matters is a podcast all about the energy transition and the shift to a decarbonised economy.

Since 2015, Poland has been governed by the Law and Justice Party, which has been sceptical about EU climate policy and been at loggerheads with Brussels over rule of law, leading to the suspension of EU funds, including those earmarked for the green transition.

This could all be about to change following October’s nationalelection where the opposition parties together won more support than the Law and Justice Party. With the groups now expected to form a coalition, this could mean a more pro-EU, climate-friendly government.

To discuss what changes the new Polish government might bring about, founder and president of the Polish think tank Forum Energii, Dr Joanna Maćkowiak-Pandera, joins David Weston and Kira Taylor.

Enjoy the show!

If you have any thoughts or questions about anything that has been discussed in this week’s episode, you can reach us at our Twitter accounts:
Joanna Maćkowiak-Pandera
David Weston
Kira Taylor

@WattMattersPod
FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

Illustration: Masha Krasnova-Shabaeva.

Show notes:You can find the Expert Council on Energy Security and Climate’s recommendations for policy actions for the new Polish government here.

What caught our eye this week:

Joanna’s pick: Poland Shows That Autocracy Is Not Inevitable – by Anne Applebaum for The Atlantic

Kira’s pick: European Commission plans new support for renewables in European Wind Power Package

David’s pick: Drinks giant Coca-Cola wants to make its bottle tops from carbon dioxide taken out of the atmosphere

Understanding R&D

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From FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, Energy Enablers is a podcast in which we speak to those who are making a difference in the race to a decarbonised economy.

For the best possible audio experience, listen to Energy Enablers in the FORESIGHT app. This requires a subscription to FORESIGHT Climate & Energy. If you want to know if your company/organisation is subscribed to FORESIGHT or would like a reminder of your login details, email info@foresightdk.com.

In this week’s Energy Enablers, Panu Virolainen, chief technology officer at ABB Motion, lets us into the world of research and development and its continued importance to the energy transition

There is a train of thought that suggests if we have that technology to achieve the energy transition, why are hundreds of millions of dollars still being spent on research and development (R&D)?

In this week’s episode, Panu Virolainen from ABB Motion, tells David why R&D remains an important element of the decarbonisation story.

If you have any thoughts or questions about anything that has been discussed in this week’s episode, you can reach us at our social media accounts:
Panu Virolainen
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EnergyEnablers
FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

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The Jolt: Don’t call it a comeback

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Introducing The Jolt, a new series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, which will keep you updated on all the essential energy transition stories

This is where The Jolt comes in. Tune in on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

We kick off with a look at the major global climate and energy news stories.

What you need to know

Here are some of the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

The global shift to renewables is “unstoppable”, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest outlook report. Half of the world’s electricity will be sourced from clean sources by 2030 but fossil fuel phaseouts are progressing at too slow a pace for the globe to stay within 1.5℃ of warming above pre-industrial levels.
UK energy bills will increase again next year and will not dip below pre-crisis levels for the rest of the decade, analysts predict. Costs will rise from an average of £96 (€110) per megawatt-hour to nearly £130 (€149).
California now has enough storage capacity to power 6.6 million homes for up to four hours, new data shows. The state has 6600 megawatts (MW) installed, with another 1900 MW due to come online by the end of the year.
Japan signed a floating offshore wind agreement with Denmark. The two countries will aim to set global standards for the sector and Japan is scheduled to publish a full strategy in March 2024.
China smashed another clean energy record by installing 129 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV between January and September. This is more PV capacity freshly added to China’s grid than Germany has in total.
Nigeria is set to receive 500 mini-grid installations powered by solar to help rural and isolated communities gain access to electricity. US firm Husk Power Systems secured $100 million for the project, which is backed by the US International Development Finance Corporation and the European Investment Bank, among others.
Seventy-five percent of Brazil’s total emissions are indirectly caused by food production, as deforested land is used for grazing pastures and crop fields. Brazil is the world’s fifth biggest polluter and its beef sector alone would make the top ten if it was a country. Next week’s Policy Dispatch episode will dive deeper into what Brazil is doing to halt and reverse its climate-wrecking ways.

Today’s big story

Don’t call it a comeback

Image MidJourney / Prompts FORESIGHT.

Europe’s wind sector has slumped in recent years thanks to supply chain constraints caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and inflation wreaking havoc on investment decisions. In 2022, 16 GW was installed in the EU – a record – but according to trade body WindEurope, 31 GW is needed every year to hit climate targets.
The EU’s executive branch, the European Commission, yesterday published a new package of rules and measures aimed at revitalising the sector. It includes extra support to improve permitting and auction design.
By the end of the year, the Commission will make available an online platform that governments can use to digitalise their permitting processes. On auction design, the EU executive wants national authorities to include non-price criteria in tenders, such as sustainability standards and cybersecurity checks and measures.
Energy commissioner Kadri Simson says, “If we are going to spend billions on projects, we should mitigate the risks for implementation, the level playing field and security.”

“We want wind power to continue to be a European success story”

Morten Petersen, a Danish member of the European Parliament, welcomed the new package, saying it was much needed by the sector.
Petersen added that it will benefit not just the wind sector, as permitting and auction improvements will be a boon for other renewable energy generators.

Check out the latest episode of Watt Matters, which digs into how Poland’s recent election result will affect energy and climate thinking, and stay tuned for a new article on district heating.

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The Jolt: Damage control

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Introducing The Jolt, a new series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, which will keep you updated on all the essential energy transition stories

This is where The Jolt comes in. Tune in on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

We kick off with a look at the major global climate and energy news stories.

What you need to know

Here are some of the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

Australia achieved a green power record in September, sourcing more electricity from renewables than ever before. For 30 minutes on a Saturday last month, Australia’s eastern grid was fed by 98.6% green electrons. The country as a whole, including the northern and western grids, was running on just over 70% renewable power.
Swiss voters have backed the ruling right-wing party in an election held this weekend. Pollsters predict that the migration-focused Swiss People’s Party will pay even less attention to climate policies as a result.
Singapore is keeping its options open when it comes to nuclear power. The island city-state is investing in nuclear safety and preparedness according to its industry minister and there is also growing interest in small modular reactor technology.
Argentina’s presidential race is set to be contested by a leftwing candidate and a far-right libertarian who will likely make big changes. Javier Milei, who does not believe in climate change, would scrap power sector controls and push back on LNG export subsidies. He would also appoint the scientist who cloned his favourite dog to a top scientific advisory role.
European Union policymakers are reportedly talking about setting up an emissions trading system for agriculture. There are many difficulties to overcome first, including political pushback and technical feasibility in measuring non-CO2 emissions, which make up the main part of the sector’s footprint.
The European Commission will publish a first ever stocktake on the EU’s progress towards hitting its 2050 climate neutrality goal. The green audit is a legal obligation under the Union’s landmark Climate Law.
Fossil fuels should be phased out by 2040, according to a coalition of more than 100 international companies representing more than $1 trillion in annual revenue. Their open letter calls on governments to set clear targets and timelines that govern the phaseout of unabated fossil fuels. Check out last week’s Jolt episode for more about the “unabated issue”.

Today’s big story

Damage control

Image MidJourney / Prompts FORESIGHT.

A new climate fund aimed at helping developing countries pay for loss and damages caused by climate change risks being left in limbo after negotiators failed to agree on the rules that should underpin it.
The loss and damage fund was formally agreed at last year’s COP27 summit but the finer details were kicked down the road. At a meeting in Egypt this weekend, delegates disagreed predominantly over who should actually run the fund.
Developed countries are backing a US plan to host the fund at the US-based World Bank, insisting it will get the fund up and running sooner. Developing countries say that this is not a viable solution, claiming that the fund should be managed by an independent body instead.
Cuba’s UN ambassador Pedro Pedroso Cuesta is part of the group of developing countries pushing back against the World Bank idea. He warns that the proposal would not be fit for purpose and would not be able to react sufficiently to climate disasters.

“This fund should bring justice to communities, because that is what it is meant to do”

Lien Vandamme from the Center for International Environmental Law says that the fund would not be set up sooner under the World Bank and that there are significant concerns about its potential effectiveness if that structure is chosen.
Negotiators are going to reconvene for one final attempt at hammering out a deal in the first week of November. If they fail, then it will be another unresolved item on the COP28 agenda. That summit starts on 30th November.
Check out the latest episode of Energy Enablers here and stay tuned for the next edition of Watt Matters later this week, which this time focuses on Poland.

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Unleashing the power of the private sector: A call to action for COP28 UAE

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The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

The climate crisis is not just governments’ problem to solve

An existential climate crisis threatens to rewrite the rules of human survival, and it is now no longer a question of whether the private sector should play a role in climate action—it is a matter of how much and how swiftly.

As we stride towards the COP28 climate talks in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in December 2023, we have a golden opportunity to reframe the narrative of climate change from one of despair to one of hope and action. Now, more than ever, is the time for corporations to step forward, to wield their power and to shape our world for the better.

Businesses, often vilified for the climate crisis, are fast becoming its unsung heroes. From technology titans developing artificial intelligence (AI) to optimise energy use to food companies championing regenerative business models, the private sector is showing us that the path to sustainability need not be paved with sacrifice but can instead be a journey of innovation and prosperity.

FINANCIAL VIABILITY

The idea that “green” and “growth” must be mutually exclusive is rapidly becoming an antiquated notion—in recognising the environmental impact of their operations, corporations are embracing the opportunities that a green transition offers. To many, these practices are not just the morally right choice but, now, financially viable ones.

By catalysing action, global events like COP empower the private sector to actively reshape our planet. These events have highlighted the remarkable progress made by organisations committed to combatting climate change, proving that meaningful change is not just an aspiration but a tangible reality.

I was recently on the jury panel of the Zayed Sustainability Prize (ZSP)—an award which supports small to worldwide medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), nonprofit organisations (NPOs) and high schools with impactful and innovative sustainable projects—and saw first-hand how these initiatives can bring about real change through the private sector regardless of the scale.

As we approach COP28 in the UAE, it is up to us to harness the full potential of the private sector, turning the wheels of industry towards the goals set out in the Paris Agreement. We need to cultivate an environment where businesses can thrive while ensuring the planet continues to flourish.

To do this, we must advocate for policies that reward sustainable practices, develop frameworks to measure and disclose climate risk and foster collaboration between governments, NGOs and businesses. Only then can we unlock the private sector’s immense potential to drive meaningful and lasting change.

The key point is that the climate crisis is not just a problem for governments to solve. It is a global challenge that requires the active participation of all sectors of society, including the private sector.

We must harness this momentum to unite, mobilise the strength and creativity of businesses globally, and propel forward our shared goal of a sustainable future. We must unleash the full force of industry to build a world that is not only resilient and sustainable but also prosperous, inclusive and fair for all.

As we stand at this critical juncture, our actions today will shape the judgment of history. Our legacy must be marked by meaningful transformation and unwavering resilience.

North America takes on the urban transport challenge

How green is my valley?

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From FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, Policy Dispatch is a podcast all about the policies that underpin the global energy transition.

Today’s Policy Dispatch episode takes us to the rolling green hillsides of Wales. Home to abundant natural beauty but also plentiful renewable energy sources, the Celtic nation has ambitious clean power targets to hit that could make it a leader in Europe, if not the world. Climate is now an important issue in a country that was defined by fossil fuels for much of its recent history and in 2019 the Welsh Parliament actually became the first in the world to formally declare a climate emergency.

Sam was fortunate enough to chat with Welsh climate minister Julie James about the country’s big decarbonisation plans, as part of a discussion that also delved into the importance of community-led energy projects.

Diolch, enjoy the show!

If you have any thoughts or questions about anything that has been discussed in this week’s episode, you can reach us at our Twitter accounts:

Julie James
Sam Morgan
@Policy Dispatch
Kira Taylor
FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

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The Jolt: New Zealand turns back time

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Introducing The Jolt, a new series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, which will keep you updated on all the essential energy transition stories

This is where The Jolt comes in. Tune in on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

We kick off with a look at the major global climate and energy news stories.

What you need to know

Here are some of the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

The US government announced investments of $3.5 billion into electricity grids. The support will also include financing for microgrids and the Department of Energy says 35 gigawatts of renewables could be added to the system as a result. Check out Monday’s Jolt, which focused on why grids are making the news at the moment.
US President Joe Biden welcomes EU leaders for a summit in Washington today to discuss steel and aluminium tariff relaxation, as well as electric vehicle subsidies. But talks behind the scenes have seemingly failed to make much progress, however.
An International Atomic Energy Agency team has begun testing fish caught near the Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan. The Japanese authorities have begun a 30-year-long operation to dispose of contaminated water following the 2011 disaster and this taskforce wants to confirm that it will have no adverse effects on the environment.
French company Technip Energies reportedly breached EU sanctions placed on Russia by providing an Arctic LNG project with crucial equipment. The firm denies claims made by a Le Monde investigation.
A gas turbine has been run on 100% renewable hydrogen for the first time. Solar and wind power were used to power an electrolyser to produce the green hydrogen fuel. Project member Siemens Energy hope to use the findings in its next-generation of gas turbines.
Lithuania started operating what it calls the most powerful battery in Europe. The 200 MW system can provide an hour of backup power to the four urban areas connected to it. A second offshore wind auction was also confirmed for January after a state aid scheme was given the green light by the European Commission.
Finally, Polish coal miners have enrolled in a programme that will retrain them to work on wind projects. The initiative will certify graduates to work in Polish wind energy sites as well as abroad. A second programme is already planned for January.

Today’s big story

New Zealand turns back time

Image MidJourney / Prompts FORESIGHT.

New Zealanders decided on a change of government last weekend, electing to put the ruling Labour Party into opposition after six years of rule. A new likely coalition is expected to roll back some key climate and energy policies.
Labour declared a climate emergency during its stint in office and banned new oil and gas exploration. The three parties expected to form the new government have indicated they will scrap that moratorium.
Carbon Tracker’s Maeve O’Connor warns that new oil and gas investment is simply not compatible with a 1.5℃ warming objective, as enshrined by the 2015 Paris Agreement. She also insists that there is clear political will globally for more oil and gas bans.
New Zealand’s incoming government will also likely sideline a target to fully decarbonise the country’s power grid by 2030, which would have made New Zealand one of the first major countries to achieve that feat.
Instead, the parties are likely to make policies that benefit carbon capture and reduce permitting burdens for offshore wind generation, though more financial support for the latter is not expected.

“Transitions have to start somewhere”

Dr Christina Hood, a New Zealand climate expert, recently told The Policy Dispatch podcast that renewables are the country’s future and explained why New Zealand has abundant resources to call upon. Check out that full episode here.
Check out FORESIGHT’s latest episode of the Policy Dispatch which features a discussion with Wales’ climate minister and read our new deep-dive article on North American cities and how they are facing up to transport challenges.

Audio clip credits:

New Zealand parliament YouTube

10 Downing Street YouTube

All Blacks YouTube

FORESIGHT LinkedIn / Twitter

Sam Morgan LinkedIn / Twitter

What the industry can do about heat and change

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The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

The technology is available now, so speed is of the essence

Europe’s recent severe heat wave saw temperatures soar to near-record highs in some regions. Countries like Greece, Italy, and Spain were taking measures to safeguard their residents and tourists from the scorching conditions. The hottest areas are experiencing temperatures as high as 48℃.

While it is challenging to attribute individual events to climate change, scientists emphasise that heat waves in Europe are becoming more frequent and intense at a faster rate compared to almost anywhere else on the planet.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the World Health Organisation, called for urgent action to address the climate crisis. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report stresses that “there are multiple, feasible, and effective options to mitigate the changes, available now”.

CHANGE IS HAPPENING

A closer look reveals ongoing developments that hold promise, particularly in India and China—two major emitters.

India, for instance, has some catching up to do in terms of decarbonisation. However, the country is tackling this issue with foresight and a clear investment policy. Their goal is to achieve climate neutrality by 2070, which requires a substantial increase in renewable energy capacity from the current 150 gigawatts to an astounding 7425 gigawatts. To put this into perspective, the global generation capacity from renewable sources is not even half that amount.

China, on the other hand, is making impressive strides towards its goal of becoming climate-neutral by 2060. Despite the construction of new coal-fired power plants, China’s green transformation is progressing rapidly in parallel. This year alone, the nation is installing more renewable energy capacity than what is currently available in the entirety of Germany.

India and China are just two examples, as the rest of the world is also engaged in large-scale decarbonisation efforts to transform their economies and energy systems. However, we must go above and beyond to ensure the success of these endeavours.

CRITICAL LEVERS

There are three critical levers that demand our attention.

The first involves fuel switching—we must decarbonise our power supply by significantly increasing our reliance on solar and wind energy. Projections indicate that the share of renewable energy sources needs to increase by a factor of 30 by 2050.

Secondly, we need to electrify our energy consumption across various domains. Currently, the global electrification rate stands at around 22%, but it needs to exceed 50% by 2050.

And finally, we must strive to reduce our energy consumption by addressing demand and adopting more efficient energy usage practices. This approach could lead to nearly a 50% reduction in energy consumption.

DIGITAL ENABLER

However, when I meet customers, they also emphasise the need for an additional lever: speed. Speed plays a crucial role in the process of digital transformation. In today’s rapidly evolving business landscape, organisations need to adapt quickly to stay competitive and relevant.

Digital transformation involves leveraging technology to fundamentally change how businesses operate, deliver value to customers, and innovate their products and services. Customers ask us how they can achieve the digital transformation easier, faster and at scale. The answer is: with open, digital platforms.

Picture a building that is so smart that it can detect when there are no occupants present, either through physical access control or simple sensors, and adjust heating or cooling accordingly. No more wasting energy on unoccupied spaces. Currently, data related to buildings, including comfort, fire safety or security management, often resides in separate domains, which we refer to as data silos.

But what if we could merge all this valuable information into a single, comprehensive view? By breaking down these data barriers and creating a unified platform, we unlock entirely new possibilities for optimising building performance and resource management.

As we fight climate change, it is imperative to embrace the power of digital platforms. By combining the three critical levers—fuel switch, electrification and energy efficiency—with the acceleration and convenience provided by digital solutions, we can forge a sustainable path towards a greener future.

Technology is at our fingertips—we just need to act now.

The Jolt: An EU COP-out

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Introducing The Jolt, a new series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, which will keep you updated on all the essential energy transition stories

This is where The Jolt comes in. Tune in on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

We kick off with a look at the major global climate and energy news stories.

What you need to know

Here are some of the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

Hydrogen should not be used to heat homes, according to a UK government advisory committee. The National Infrastructure Commission instead says significant financial support for heat pumps should be prioritised instead.
An Australian pension fund that controls more than $100 billion intends to invest $1.3 billion into clean energy projects, particularly small-scale solar and battery installations.
The United States National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine says government initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act have put the country onto a pathway where its net-zero 2050 goal is now achievable.
According to a new ranking by WalletHub, a personal finance company, Utah is the most energy efficient US state, while South Carolina is the worst. California, Colorado and New York make the top ten.
Oil price jumped 2% thanks to ongoing tensions in the Middle East. A deadly hospital blast in Gaza that left hundreds dead, as well as the cancellation of a peace talks summit between Egyptian, Jordanian, Palestinian and US leaders contributed to the spike.
EU member countries finally agreed to an update of electricity market rules after ministers were able to find a compromise on the finer details of contracts for difference (CfDs). Talks with the European Parliament and Commission can now begin.

Today’s big story

An EU COP-out

Image MidJourney / Prompts FORESIGHT.

The European Union wants to go to November’s COP28 summit with a strong negotiating position, in order to convince other countries to follow its lead on energy transition issues like renewable energy and fossil fuel reductions.
But at a meeting of environment ministers this week, where that position was discussed and voted on, governments did not agree that the EU should call for a full fossil fuel phaseout, rather the phaseout of “unabated fossil fuels”.
This means that oil and gas used to generate easy to abate sectors like power generation and light vehicles should be nixed but heavy industry should be allowed to continue emitting if they use carbon capture.
Spanish minister Teresa Ribera says getting rid of fossil fuels is a “step by step process” while Maltese minister Miriam Dalli says that it is a big consideration for smaller countries.
The EU also failed to get an agreement on upgrading its emissions reduction target for 2030 from 55% to 57%. Ministers would only accept a deal that included “at least 55%”.

“It is problematic because this is one of the biggest issues we will be discussing at the next COP”

Greens member of the European Parliament Michael Bloss warns that the EU now risks going to COP without a strong position and doubts that the Union can convince others to be more ambitious, given that it has failed to show that ambition itself.
Check out FORESIGHT’s latest episode of the Policy Dispatch which features a discussion with Wales’ climate minister and stay tuned for our next deep-dive article on North American cities and how they are facing up to transport challenges.

Audio clip credits:

European Council video archive

FORESIGHT LinkedIn / Twitter

Sam Morgan LinkedIn / Twitter

The Jolt: Pylon pressure

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Introducing The Jolt, a new series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, which will keep you updated on all the essential energy transition stories

This is where The Jolt comes in. Tune in on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

We kick off with a look at the major global climate and energy news stories.

What you need to know

Here are some of the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

India’s government is reportedly working on a plan to push developed countries to target net-negative emissions by 2050 instead of net-zero. This is part of a bid to allow developing countries to burn fossil fuels for longer.
EU environment ministers meet today to try and broker agreements on emissions standards for heavy duty vehicles and a joint negotiating position for the bloc to take to November’s COP28 climate summit.
European energy ministers meet 17 October to try and agree on updated electricity market rules. Contracts for difference are the major sticking point.s.

Russian president Vladimir Putin will meet Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping tomorrow in what is Putin’s first trip outside of the former Soviet Union this year. Energy is expected to be high on the leaders’ agenda.
New Zealand’s general election this past weekend looks set to install a coalition government that may seek to overturn a ban on new offshore oil and gas exploration that was imposed in 2018. Check out the latest episode of the Policy Dispatch for more on New Zealand.
The United States government revealed that seven hydrogen hubs are set to receive $7 billion in funding under the infrastructure law. Two of the hubs will include a focus on nuclear-sourced pink hydrogen, which is produced using nuclear power. Check out our latest article about this issue.
Mongolia signed an agreement worth €1.6 billion with France that will allow a French nuclear fuel company to operate a uranium mine. The deal also includes a cooperation agreement on using satellites to search for lithium deposits.

Today’s big story

Pylon pressure

Image MidJourney / Prompts FORESIGHT.

Electricity grids are a major part of the ongoing energy transition and are a global issue. Electrifying sectors that were previously powered by fossil fuels requires a big rethink and massive investments in grid infrastructure.
Eurelectric’s Kristian Ruby says that Europe is in a good place in terms of our current needs but that upcoming objectives and targets will require much more planning and investment.
The European Commission will publish a new grids action plan in November that will aim to spell out what needs to be done on grids and how it can be achieved.
Tomorrow, the International Energy Agency will release a first-of-its-kind report on the global outlook for grids. Stay tuned here for that publication.

“Without transmission, there’s no transition”

From a geopolitical point of view, grids are a hot topic. Ukraine successfully disconnected its infrastructure from Russia’s following last year’s invasion and ongoing work to do the same for the Baltic States has also been galvanised.
The United States is getting serious on grids too. Kristian Ruby doubts that the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act will yet have trickled down to the sector, but it is very clear that North America is closely aligned with Europe on grid issues.

Audio clip credits:

White House YouTube

European Commission YouTube

ENTSO-E YouTube

FORESIGHT LinkedIn / Twitter

Sam Morgan LinkedIn / Twitter

Pink hydrogen fails to nuke ongoing concerns

The Jolt: Britain falls off the rails

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Introducing The Jolt, a new series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, which will keep you updated on all the essential energy transition stories

This is where The Jolt comes in. Tune in on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

We kick off with a look at the major global climate and energy news stories.

What you need to know

Here are some of the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

EU negotiators brokered an agreement on fluorinated gases, which means the most harmful of which will be phased out by 2050. The climate-damaging refrigerants, which can be found your fridges, air conditioners, heat pumps and the electrical grids, will need to be replaced by environmentally-friendly alternatives.
Pope Francis said that the world may be “nearing a breaking point” because of climate change and has urged world leaders to be more serious about making decisions. The head of the Catholic Church made the call as part of a new addition to a landmark 2015 statement that drew attention to the dangers of global warming and rampant consumerism. You can read the full document here.
Indian President Droupadi Murmu told power sector officials that energy efficiency and renewables are the main ways India will achieve its 2070 net-zero target.
New projections by the London Stock Exchange Group show that if the EU implements a 90% emissions reduction target for 2040, emissions trading permits could top €400 per tonne. That would be a mighty increase on the ~€80 currently sustained by the carbon market.

Today’s big story

Britain falls off the rails

HighSpeed Train, MidJourney.

UK climate and energy success stories have gradually petered out after a strong start in the 2010s that included renewables rollout and decoupling emissions from economic growth. Recently, approvals for new oil and gas exploration, a backtrack on key net-zero pledges and slowdown of green investments have called into question British climate credentials.
The ruling Conservative government confirmed this week that it would scrap the second half of the HS2 high-speed rail project connecting London with northern cities and was meant, in part, to help the country go green and make a dent in its transport emissions.
Not every British climate and energy story is a negative one though, the government recently published its targets for a zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate, which is set to do a lot of the heavy lifting associated with road transport decarbonisation.
Johann Beckford from the Green Alliance says a delayed ban on internal combustion engines was a “bad market signal”, while Ralph Palmer from Transport & Environment says that the ZEV mandate is “a very positive step”.

“It’s indicative of us not having done a good enough job on decarbonising transport and shifting people onto more sustainable means of transport”

A national election is almost certainly going to be held next year and although the opposition Labour Party, a long-time leader in the polls, has pledged to reverse some of the Conservative Party’s climate changes, HS2’s second leg is unlikely to be reinstated.
Check out this recent episode of Watt Matters that charts the UK’s journey towards net-zero and stay tuned for the next edition of the Policy Dispatch, when Wales’ climate minister will be the expert guest.

Audio clip credits:
Rishi Sunak X account | Climate Change Committee YouTube account

This is week one of The Jolt, and we are keen to hear your feedback. Get in touch with us at the following links to let us know what you liked, what you weren’t keen on and what you’d like to see in upcoming editions of the show.

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Bigger ideas, not just bigger budgets, will help to green our cities

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The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

Thinking outside the box will be beneficial for many of the world’s major metropolises

To have a two-in-three chance of limiting global warming to 1.5℃, we must release no more than 400 gigatons of CO₂ into the atmosphere between 2020 and 2050. As cities generate over 70% of total greenhouse gas emissions, they play a vital role in leading the charge to net zero. With around a third of urban emissions coming from transport, driving the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is a sensible strategy.

In recent years, governments at all levels have been investing in, and incentivising, this shift to EVs—and it is working. Global EV sales leapt 55% in 2022, making up 13% of total vehicle sales. If consumer demand continues to grow, and prices continue to fall, battery EVs and plug-in hybrids could make up 55% of global vehicle sales by 2030.

The impact of the widespread adoption of EVs on cities would be powerful. By generating 17%–30% lower emissions than petrol and diesel cars, EVs would improve both air quality and quality of life for citizens. And by creating new jobs—an estimated 334,000 by 2030 in the US and Canada alone—they could also help reduce economic inequity.

To realise these benefits, though, cities will need to overcome some substantial challenges.

INCENTIVISE UPTAKE

Many cities are expanding and electrifying their public transit systems. In China, Shenzhen already has a fully electric fleet of buses and taxis, for example. And Medellin in Columbia is one of 26 cities to commit to procuring only zero-emission buses by 2025.

Cities are also using incentives to encourage citizens to adopt EVs. Popular approaches include scrappage schemes (in which motorists are given cash toward a new, greener vehicle when trading in an old one), free parking and exemptions from road pricing charges.

Incentives can also be targeted at those who can least afford to make the shift. In San Francisco, subsidies are available to help low-income residents buy old and new EVs. The results of such initiatives can be powerful: in India, where two- and three-wheeled vehicles dominate city streets, e-rickshaws and e-mopeds now cost as little as $1000 and are cheap to run.

Meanwhile, Singapore is combining the carrot with the stick to achieve its goal of 100% cleaner vehicles by 2040. Cleaner vehicles are eligible for rebates, and by 2030, citizens will no longer be able to register new cars and taxis with new pure internal combustion engines.

GREENER SUPPLIES

There are two aspects to supply in the context of EVs: ensuring an adequate supply of charging points and switching to cleaner ways of producing the electricity they provide.

On the infrastructure side, cities bump up against an age-old problem: only a fraction of the tax revenues collected within the city stays in the city. So they cannot access funding on the scale needed to deliver large-scale projects. To get around the issue, cities are engaging with the private sector to raise investment and deliver innovative solutions.

In New York City, where on-street parking presents a logistical headache for EV charging, the city is working with an energy company and charging network to pilot a curbside scheme. Cities can also issue green city bonds, use public seed capital to attract private investment and send clear signals to the market by setting deployment targets.

When it comes to producing clean energy, rooftops—which take up 15-35% of total land area in cities—are an obvious opportunity. But other, more creative solutions are emerging. In its bid to host Expo 2030, Rome proposes building the world’s largest urban solar farm made up of hundreds of “energy trees.” By opening and closing their panels, the trees will generate energy and provide shade helping to keep the city cool.

Cities that want to nurture this kind of green innovation can use tax credits to attract more private capital into startups and support more R&D.

CARBON STORAGE

Even with all the necessary funding, partnerships and policies in place, the shift to EVs will not happen overnight. Nor will it remove all urban transport emissions.

Carbon removal solutions can complement emissions reduction strategies by removing unavoidable CO₂ emissions from the air and storing them, often underground. In doing so, they can help cities to achieve their net-zero goals or even become carbon-negative.

As ever, though, the main barrier to implementing these large-scale projects is the high price tag. Along with raising private capital, cities can take advantage of the early-stage subsidies and market integration policies of their national and regional governments.

California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits alternative fuel providers for removing carbon from the value chain. Cities can support these initiatives by creating a regulatory and tax climate for innovation and attracting inward investment.

BUDGET REALLOCATION

With 70% of the global population expected to live in cities by 2050, it is crucial that urban leaders act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions—particularly from transport.

With the right targets, policies and regulations, cities can become hubs for green technology while also reducing transport emissions on the demand and supply sides. Public-private partnerships, innovative financing solutions and appropriate regulation will all play an important role.

But if national governments are serious about reaching net zero, they will need big ideas and not just big budgets to deliver the biggest reductions in emissions.

The Jolt: Hoekstra hooks EU climate role

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Introducing The Jolt, a new series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, which will keep you updated on all the essential energy transition stories

This is where The Jolt comes in. Tune in on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

We kick off with a look at the major global climate and energy news stories.

What you need to know

Here are some of the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

COP28 climate summit president Sultan al-Jaber—also head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company—says fossil fuel firms need to prepare for an inevitable “phase down” of oil and gas. He is reportedly working with companies ahead of the end-of-year summit in Dubai.
Canadian investment firm Brookfield is buying UK clean energy major Banks Renewables, in a deal worth $1 billion. It has been hailed as a welcome boost to Britain’s flagging sector.
Work will start on Europe’s most powerful exascale supercomputer, which will be capable of one billion billion calculations per second, the EU’s high-performance computing agency announced. “Jupiter” has been earmarked for in-depth climate research.
A French company is selling e-bikes that are powered by supercapacitors rather than batteries. More on that here.

Today’s big story

Hoekstra hooks EU climate role

Image Foresight Media / Midjourney

In today’s deep dive, we are looking at the EU’s search for a new climate boss:

Wopke Hoekstra got the nod to take over as climate commissioner after compatriot Frans Timmermans quit Brussels to return to national politics. Hoekstra’s appointment is not without controversy.
Links to fossil fuel companies, a stint at consultancy McKinsey and his record in government, especially his stance on pan-EU measures during the Covid-19 crisis, meant the Dutchman’s suitability for the climate job was called into question.
Martha Myers of Corporate Europe Observatory says that Hoekstra’s background should preclude him from the job and adds that his only record on climate is granting more than €3 billion to Dutch airline KLM during the pandemic.
Hoekstra tells MEPs during his confirmation hearing that he regrets his actions during Covid-19 and insists he “should have done it differently”. Nevertheless, he wants to use his new job to “prepare the ground for a Green Deal 2.0”.

“I’ve a confession to make: I’m in love with the ETS”

One of his biggest commitments is to work on a 2040 emissions target for the EU and to defend a scientific advisory board recommendation that says at least 90% reductions are required. Hoekstra’s candidacy was held up until he put that in writing, as well as agreeing to disclose his client list from his time at McKinsey.

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Getting your money’s worth: the cost of renewables

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From FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, Watt Matters is a podcast all about the energy transition and the shift to a decarbonised economy.

Every year, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) puts together a report, looking at the cost of renewable power production. The latest iteration shows that, despite inflation, the cost has dropped.

According to the report, the global weighted average levelised cost of electricity from new utility-scale solar, onshore wind, bioenergy and geothermal production fell. Thanks to the rise in fossil fuel prices, this makes the cost argument for renewables even more compelling, according to IRENA.

However, the picture is complicated, with China a key driver for the drop in solar photovoltaics and onshore wind.

To explain more, Michael Taylor, senior analyst for renewable cost status and outlook at IRENA, joins David, Jan and Michaela.

Enjoy the show!

If you have any thoughts or questions about anything that has been discussed in this week’s episode, you can reach us at our Twitter accounts:
Michael Taylor
Michaela Holl
Jan Rosenow
David Weston
Kira Taylor
@WattMattersPod
FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

Illustration: Masha Krasnova-Shabaeva.

Show notes:

You can find the IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022 report here.

What caught our eye this week:

Jan’s pick: Hydrogen should only play a limited & complimentary role to decarbonise heating – study
Michael’s pick: UK Office for Budget Responsibility July report on financial risks and sustainability
Dave’s pick: Rishi Sunak announces U-turn on key green targets
Michaela’s pick: Having land-use emissions could cut land-use emissions by 31% – Carbon Pulse

Digging into Europe’s geothermal revival

The Jolt: Europe’s carbon border tax goes live

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Introducing The Jolt, a new series from FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, which will keep you updated on all the essential energy transition stories

Welcome to the first-ever episode of The Jolt by FORESIGHT Climate & Energy. In a world that is underpinned by climate and energy stories, it is sometimes hard to cut through the cacophony of noise and get to the news you need to hear.

This is where The Jolt comes in. Tune in on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays for bite-sized updates, expert analysis and a global view.

We kick off this first episode with a look at the major global climate and energy news stories.

What you need to know

Some of the main climate and energy stories making the news around the world:

The European Parliament will interview a Dutch candidate to fill the now-vacant climate commissioner position. Wopke Hoekstra will have a hearing with MEPs later today on October 2nd, 2023, with his past links to fossil fuels and record in government under scrutiny. On October 3rd, MEPs will interview Maroš Šefčović, a Slovak official who is in line to be promoted and have oversight over the rest of the EU Green Deal.
The United States government has unveiled plans to issue just three leases for offshore oil and gas exploration in the coming five-year period. In what is a massive scaledown from the Trump administration’s announced 47 leases, the new plan has nevertheless attracted criticism from both Republican lawmakers and industry, as well as environmental groups, which wanted leases cut to zero. The three sales mean the government will abide by the Inflation Reduction Act, which sets a minimum number of exploration leases needed to issue offshore wind farm permits.
Japan’s government has agreed to allow corporate usage of smart meter data. Under a new scheme, companies can pay a fee to access information from the country’s 80 million devices, which log power consumption and user behaviour patterns. It is hoped that greater transparency will allow those companies to roll out more ambitious energy savings measures and help Japan meet its long-term emissions reduction goals.
The EU’s carbon border tax, or CBAM, went live on October 1st, as the transition period kicked off.

Today’s big story

Europe’s carbon border tax goes live

Image Ant Rozetsky, Unsplash.

In today’s deep dive, we are looking at the carbon border adjustment mechanism or CBAM:

CBAM is meant to prevent carbon leakage—a phenomenon where industries relocate to avoid energy transition legislation and the associated costs—and to spark more ambitious green policies by the EU’s trading partners.
Imported steel, iron, aluminium, fertiliser, hydrogen, electricity, cement and some precursors will be charged extra tariffs if they are not manufactured cleanly or do not respect sustainability criteria.
Significant trading partners like China and India are not keen on the policy, which they have called discriminatory and unfair. Legal action has been threatened, but Brussels insists that CBAM is watertight.
Elisabetta Cornago at the Centre for European Reform says that the “pragmatic approach” would be for trading partners to get their own houses in order, set up their own carbon pricing schemes and use the money they generate to decarbonise their economies, instead of paying the EU.
Dan Maleski of Redshaw Advisors adds that the United States will play a role, and the Inflation Reduction Act might muddy the waters of CBAM if the rules are not spelt out correctly. He also explains that not just non-EU businesses will have to get to grips with the new policy, as EU firms that are reliant on global supply chains also have to get up to speed.

“Some folks know what the acronym stands for but not much besides that”

CBAM’s transition period runs until the end of 2025. Businesses affected by the instrument will only have to monitor, record and verify the embedded emissions in their products. Charges are expected to start in 2026.
Other CBAM coverage by FORESIGHT includes this in-depth article on the rules yet to be finalised, a Watt Matters episode with senior MEP Mohammed Chahim and an edition of the Policy Dispatch covering China’s response.

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It is time to update our thinking about energy efficiency

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The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

It is not magic, energy efficiency solutions are readily available right now

The UNFCCC Global Stocktake report released in September 2023 emphasised the urgency of honouring the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5℃. We are simply not on track yet.

The good news is that it is possible to reach our climate goals, and we do not need magic to achieve them. We already have the technology and the solutions, but action is needed.

We need an increased focus on energy efficiency policy implementation to strengthen energy security and keep the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5℃ within reach. Energy efficiency is, and always should be, the “first fuel” for clean energy transitions.

We have the required technology available and it is by far the quickest and most cost-effective carbon mitigation option.

DOUBLE UP

As Fatih Birol, at the International Energy Agency (IEA), has previously emphasised, doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements and tripling renewable power capacity globally by 2030 is essential.

Most political and business leaders understand that building out new energy supply alone is not enough to secure true energy independence or to reach our global climate goals.

The IEA’s own findings demonstrate that these objectives will remain impossible without taking the necessary measures to reduce our demand through energy efficiency as well.

The IEA’s conclusions show that doubling efficiency improvement to above 4% per annum this decade could lower global energy demand by 190 exajoules (EJ), and CO₂ from burning fossil fuels by almost 11 gigatonnes (Gt) by 2030, almost one-third of current global CO₂ emissions. While global energy demand grew by 1% in 2022, this could have been almost three times higher without the current progress we have made on energy efficiency.

The next step that needs to be taken is to update the narrative around energy efficiency—and our policies—to reflect the role of energy efficiency in a future energy system based on renewables. Energy efficiency is so much more than reducing demand and it will become even more important as the clean energy transition accelerates. We call it energy efficiency 2.0.

EFFICIENT ELECTRIFICATION

What is energy efficiency in this updated narrative? It is using digital solutions such as the Internet of Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI) to create the flexibility that our energy systems will need as the share of renewables grows. It is using electrification and sector integration to use our energy smarter, matching supply and demand.

A somewhat overlooked point is that we are not only electrifying because it allows us to use green power but also because electrification is energy efficiency in its purest form. An electric engine is considerably more energy efficient than an internal combustion engine, resulting in massive savings.

We also know that excess heat—from supermarkets, data centres, industry and wastewater treatment plants—in the EU corresponds to the total energy demand for hot water in residential and service sector buildings. Yet, it is mostly unutilised. In the Netherlands alone there is more excess heat potential than the demand for water and space heating.

One study shows that 11-12% of excess heat can theoretically be recovered. But if we do not act, we are letting the lowest-hanging fruit—and one of the greatest opportunities to increase energy security, affordability, and sustainability—slip straight through our fingers.

Excess heat not only has astonishing potential as an energy source at scale, but on a societal level, it can replace significant amounts of electricity or gas that are otherwise needed to produce heat. In this way, excess heat can help ease the transition towards a cleaner and more stabilised energy system.

SUSTAINABLE COOLING

Meanwhile, the growing demand for cooling in our homes, offices and businesses could drive one of the most substantial increases in greenhouse gas emissions we have ever seen. Energy efficiency also has a critical role to play in enabling a future with sustainable cooling.

District cooling is one of the most promising and efficient ways to cool and decarbonise buildings. Central cooling plants produce chilled water and supply it to buildings through an insulated underground piping network. District cooling is an extremely efficient way of cooling our cities.

This is not new technology and it is not magic. These solutions are readily available right now. In fact, Singapore has the world’s largest district cooling system and has reduced its energy bill by 40%, while also reducing the country’s emissions by the equivalent of 10,000 cars per year.

Put simply, the greenest energy is the energy we do not use. We have the technologies to reach our goals, now we just need the leadership to make it happen.

UK battery sector can focus on quality over quantity

Green New Zealand

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From FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, Policy Dispatch is a podcast all about the policies that underpin the global energy transition.

New Zealand Aotearoa is infamous for its breath-taking scenery, remote location in the Pacific Ocean, all-conquering rugby team and being the backdrop for the Lord of the Rings. ‘The Land of the Long White Cloud’ is, like every other country on Earth, presented with some difficult and complex energy transition hurdles that will have to be overcome.

Governments have attempted to address these climate and energy issues by launching an emissions trading system, establishing carbon budgets and aiming for a completely clean power grid. This is all with a 2050 net-zero target firmly in mind.

Are the policies in place enough to get New Zealand on track? Or are they insufficient to hit that mid-century benchmark? Where must the heavy lifting be done and why is climate neutrality such a difficult prospect for what is comparatively a small country? Internationally-recognised climate expert Dr Christina Hood joins Sam for this Policy Dispatch episode to explain the true scale of the job facing New Zealand.

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Christina Hood
Sam Morgan
@Policy Dispatch
Kira Taylor
FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

Show notes:
FORESIGHT Policy Section

Private infrastructure owners can turn charge points into cash points

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The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

Keeping private charging infrastructure off-limits to the EV-owning public means leaving cash on the table

Buses, coaches, company cars, delivery vans, taxis: across Europe, vehicle fleets are going electric to cut operating costs and contribute to a more sustainable future.

At the same time, the owners of these fleets—from private companies to public administrations—are investing in charging infrastructure.

The upfront costs of these charging systems are high and fleet owners may wonder if there are other ways to offset this investment. Indeed, two significant business opportunities beckon.

OPEN ACCESS

The first, and most obvious source of income, is to open the charging infrastructure up to the public. This may sound odd to fleet owners wishing to guard their vehicles and associated assets—and in some cases, it might be impractical to let third parties use your charging infrastructure.

For instance, if it is in the middle of a busy bus depot or if local regulations require charge point operators to register as energy suppliers.

But most of the time, giving others access to your charge points is a straightforward affair.

A charge point platform provider can show drivers when and where they can use this infrastructure. The owner gets to decide how many charge points are open to the public, and at what times, so enough capacity to service the fleet is retained. The owners can also set the charging price for public use.

DEMAND SIDE SERVICES

Alongside this obvious source of income, there is also a potential charging revenue stream that most fleet owners are not even aware exists. Unlike petrol and gas fuelling, EV chargers are essentially an extension to the grid, which means they can provide valuable grid services.

An example is demand response programmes where a grid operator compensates electricity users for reducing their consumption during high-demand periods.

EV charging operations are particularly suitable for demand response because they can quickly downscale, delay, or completely turn off the electricity capacity in their networks.

For grid operators and utilities, demand response provides a cost-efficient method to handle peak power demand and alleviate grid strain without resorting to expensive infrastructure upgrades. For charge point operators, this presents a chance to earn additional revenue.

Both revenue streams mentioned here can be captured with a minimum of fuss with the support of a smart charging platform.

PROGRESS FOR PROFITS AND PLANET

As for the expected returns, these will naturally depend on a range of factors, such as the type, number and location of charge points offered up, the time they are available, and the pricing of the service. However, in the case of one taxi firm in Copenhagen, its charge point utilisation more than doubled after the infrastructure was opened to the public.

The revenues have been so good that the taxi firm now sees EV charging as a commercial opportunity rather than a cost. This is likely to be the case for most fleet owners who have invested in fast chargers, which are in demand across most EV markets and currently command a significant premium from the driving public.

Beyond the attractiveness of the business case, here is also the societal good that opening charging up to the public can achieve. At a time when global temperatures are already around 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels, the energy transition needs all the help it can get.

Vehicle electrification is a vital part of that transition, yet today the availability of charging points remains a barrier to EV adoption in many places. This could be largely overcome by freeing up private charge points when not in use.

According to the analyst firm Berg Insight, there were 4.5 million dedicated charge points across Europe in 2021. This is almost ten times the 479,000 public charge points that were estimated to be in operation in the European Union last year.

Freeing up just a fraction of those private points for public charging could go a long way toward simplifying life for millions of EV owners while making money for infrastructure owners in the process. •

Indecent proposals

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From FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, Watt Matters is a podcast all about the energy transition and the shift to a decarbonised economy.

Sufficient and effective physical infrastructure—either electricity cables or gas pipelines—is vital for a successful energy transition. But the planning and building of any new such infrastructure has not received the attention it deserves with most debates focussing on the scaling up of renewable energies or on market rules for power, gas and hydrogen.

With the goal of practically eliminating gas from the energy mix and depending on electrons for our power, scaling back the pipelines and extending the cables over the next two decades is a huge undertaking.

In this special live podcast—recorded at an event organised by Agora Energiewende, the Regulatory Assistance Project, Energy Cities and FORESIGHT Climate and Energy—we discussed how moving away from fossil fuels is more than just a fuel change.

Our guests on the podcast this week are Dennis Hesseling, head of gas, coal and power at the International Energy Agency; Katharina Umpfenbach, head of infrastructure and energy systems at the German energy agency, Dena; and Michael Liebriech, CEO of Liebreich Associates, managing partner of EcoPragma Capital and host of rival energy podcast, “Cleaning Up – Leadership in an Age of Climate Change”.

Enjoy the show!

Watch the live footage here.

If you have any thoughts or questions about anything that has been discussed in this week’s episode, you can reach us at our Twitter accounts:
Dennis Hesseling
Katharina Umpfenbach
Michael Libreich
David Weston
Kira Taylor
@WattMattersPod
FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

Illustration: Masha Krasnova-Shabaeva.

Understanding digital infrastructure

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From FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, Energy Enablers is a podcast in which we speak to those who are making a difference in the race to a decarbonised economy.

Digitisation is entering every facet of the energy transition, none more so than for grids and energy infrastructure. With the increasing complexity of grid operation, data is a vital tool to ensure the security of supply.

Sabine Erlinghagen is CEO of the grid software division at Siemens. In this week’s episode, David and Sabine examine how grids operators are adapting to the new data-driven world and what is means for the energy transition.

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If you have any thoughts or questions about anything that has been discussed in this week’s episode, you can reach us at our social media accounts:
Sabine Erlinghagen
David Weston
EnergyEnablers
FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

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The Balkan Express

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From FORESIGHT Climate & Energy, Policy Dispatch is a podcast all about the policies that underpin the global energy transition.

In Europe’s southeast, the Balkan peninsula has a transport dilemma. Relatively short distances between cities take hours to navigate and what should be a well-connected region is anything but. Motorway expansion is the go-to government option while rail and waterways often only get the scraps. Given transport’s substantial contribution to our emissions surplus, this makes for an interesting climate policy case study. If the Balkans gets its transport act together, who knows what other green objectives the region could achieve?

As six countries vie for EU membership, one international body, the Transport Community, aims to help integrate those nations into the pan-European bloc to both accelerate their membership applications and make the transition a smoother ride. That means helping governments adopt EU standards and rules so that they can tap into funding, as well as making recommendations on what kind of policies should be prioritised.

This week Sam is joined by the Transport Community’s director, Matej Zakonjšek, to discuss the difficulties the region is facing, what kind of transport options the Balkans should focus on and why these EU-hopefuls could actually outstrip their northern neighbours if the right decisions are made soon.

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If you have any thoughts or questions about anything that has been discussed in this week’s episode, you can reach us at our Twitter accounts:
Matej Zakonjšek
Sam Morgan
@Policy Dispatch
Kira Taylor
FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

Show notes:
FORESIGHT Policy Section

Today’s construction must not become tomorrow’s retrofit

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The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

The biggest impact will come from reducing the energy demand of buildings and improving their thermal performance

The way we build is evolving dramatically, with new materials, systems and technologies making it possible to create architecture that is more energy efficient, resilient and sensitive to the needs of its inhabitants than ever before.

To meet the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change pathway to limit the global rise in temperature to 1.5°C, it is essential for all sectors to decarbonise rapidly over the next ten years.

Buildings are currently responsible for 39% of global energy-related carbon emissions: 28% from operational emissions, from energy needed to heat, cool and power them, and the remaining 11% from materials and construction.

REDUCING ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Improvements in building envelopes using the external fabric first approach, in combination with rapid and wider deployment of technologies such as heat pumps, district heating systems and other renewable heat sources, are the only coherent route to meeting our targets.

Lowering energy demands with high-performance building envelopes and services reduces the investment required in renewable generation capacity and minimises the extent of predicted climate change.

High-performance building envelopes do not just reduce overall carbon emissions, energy costs and the incidences of fuel poverty, they can also provide improved comfort, health and well-being; better indoor air quality (when combined with improved ventilation and lighting provisions) and can improve the productivity of the occupants.

To reduce the energy consumption in the EU building sector, the existing building stock will need to be retrofitted. Today, 75% of existing buildings are energy inefficient and were constructed before legislation on building performance was in place.

RENOVATION RATES

Between 85% and 95% of today’s buildings will still be in use in 2050. With only 1% (on average) of buildings undergoing energy renovations each year, it would take over 100 years to deliver on the EU’s 2050 climate neutrality objective.

While many G20 countries have achieved some reduction in building-related emissions, they are all failing to do so at the speed and scale required to achieve the 2050 net-zero goals agreed at COP21 under the Paris Agreement.

Among European G20 nations, Germany leads the way in its retrofitting performance, followed by France. Nevertheless, even these higher-performing countries are not making sufficient progress to reduce emissions in line with global net-zero targets. Among other global G7 members, Canada, USA and Japan are slowest.

Therefore, achieving a much deeper and increased renovation rate is crucial for achieving the EU’s decarbonisation objective. The International Energy Agency says 20% of existing buildings should have an energy retrofit by 2030 to align with EU targets.

What is not often talked about is that energy-efficient renovations bring many other benefits to occupants, owners, the economy and society at large. The expected benefits are broad for both indoor comfort and for the environment, as well as economic by boosting the construction sector and, in doing so, supporting SMEs and local jobs.

CLEAR VISION

Long-term and consistent policies are critical in driving momentum and setting the path to meeting the Paris goals. Faster and more ambitious action is needed to drive the necessary change, with better sign-posting of policies and regulations to help industry deliver solutions.

The recent reshaping of the EU Energy Efficiency Directive is a positive stepping stone to achieving an accelerated transition. EU countries will be required to achieve an average annual energy savings rate of 1.49% from 2024 to 2030, up from the current requirement of 0.8%, driving energy savings in critical sectors like construction.

As an industry, we need to increase the rates of renovation of existing buildings. This means improving the performance of existing buildings to something close to that of a new building and ensuring that properties are truly future-proofed and resilient to a changing climate.

In combination with this, setting ambitious minimum energy performance standards for both new builds and renovations, to ensure that today’s construction does not become tomorrow’s retrofit is such an essential element to solve.

As a follow-on, improving the quality of Energy Performance Certificates is necessary, as they are needed to underpin the minimum energy performance standards and are also often used as a control mechanism for financing programmes.

Where building prowess was once measured in tonnes of concrete and steel, today’s stand-out buildings sing of how little of its construction and operation weigh on the environment. Building better and providing more efficient products is the single most important action we in the built environment industry can take against our present environmental emergency.

The growing impact of oil and gas in offshore wind

Insurers have a responsibility to offer long-term solutions

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The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

Twelve-month solutions to 25-year problems will simply not cut it anymore

When you think of insurance, you think of 12-month annually renewed contracts; the two go hand-in-hand. This used to be pragmatic for clients and carriers, enforcing competition in the market and helping insurers effectively manage their regulatory capital obligations.

However, the world is changing. The world’s energy transition—widely described as the greatest reallocation of capital in human history—needs a new approach from insurance.

Traditionally an exercise in procurement, insurance needs to become a collaborative, long-term solution, to effectively manage emerging risks. Something that better reflects the nature of green and low-carbon energy projects and the associated investment hurdles.

FAR HORIZONS

In the UK offshore renewables space, nationally regulated Offshore Electricity Transmission (OFTO) licences are issued over a 25-year term. In contrast, the assets are largely insured one year at a time.

Insurance is one of the biggest costs borne by projects, and depending on insurance market cycles, it can have marked changes in price. This makes financial planning and prudent allocation of capital incredibly difficult.

In many cases, clean energy technologies will be new and largely untested, and developers will require committed capital for many years. Returns will not be realised overnight and quite possibly not even within the current board’s tenure, with the average CEO now serving just 48 months.

Many organisations are comparatively loyal to their insurance partners with relationships that span many years—albeit on a seemingly insecure, one-year rolling contract.

Loans, bonds and other financial products all have long-term tenors, so why not insurance?

PLAN FURTHER AHEAD

From the insurer’s perspective, one-year contracts are tempting. This is especially the case in a changing world where the losses of yesterday rarely equate to the losses of tomorrow. The annual policy standard provides huge flexibility for insurers, allowing them to simply pull out of areas of unattractive exposure with, in effect, 12 months’ notice.

In the past, this was also an opportunity for clients. But is this really adequate today in an increasingly volatile world where business is finding it increasingly difficult to predict their long-term exposures?

With uncertainty in consumer, business, government and global markets, buyers should be able to lock in rates to avoid dramatic swings in pricing or, more importantly, being left without any insurance at all.

Such deals will cost more in the short term, akin to fixing a mortgage rate. If you lock in a rate for ten years, it costs more than fixing for two. But, your repayment costs become more predictable. It is time for insurance companies to discuss with their clients, the value of long-term guaranteed insurance capacity.

PREDICTABLE PAYMENTS

Everyone involved should welcome any solution that brings predictability to the costs and profitability of financing and developing sustainable energy projects and it is one way insurance can stay relevant in a rapidly evolving environment.

Aligning insurance solutions to how the capital markets work is an essential next step for the insurance industry. If capital is loaned over 25 years, the risk management planning must work within the same timeframe.

I believe that the insurance market has a responsibility to offer long-term solutions, to be the advocate of long-term planning and to help organisations understand what their risk profile looks like over the next decades.

Many organisations are not putting enough thought into what their assets will be worth in 20 years’ time or how they might be affected by climate change, where models that predict long-term exposures are becoming increasingly available. Insurance has a critical role to play in advising the board on how to de-risk and prepare for their future. A future beyond one year. •

Electrolysis: what you need to know

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The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

Companies looking to capitalise on the growing market for green hydrogen will need a sound knowledge of electrolyser technologies

We are not far off mentioning “green hydrogen” without explaining how it is made and why it differs from the other “colours” on the hydrogen spectrum. With interest in hydrogen soaring over the last couple of years, even those with a passing interest may know that “green” means it is made from water via electrolysis powered by renewable electricity.

This is good news, given the amount of disinformation, uncertainty and doubt still present in many topics relating to the energy transition. Drill down into green hydrogen, though, and there is still plenty of room for misinterpretation.

Early project developers are wrestling with a lack of knowledge in areas that range from where to find the right sort of water to what to do with hydrogen once you have produced it.
One area of green hydrogen lore where knowledge is growing, but there is still room for improvement, is in electrolyser know-how. Anyone who knows about green hydrogen knows you need an electrolyser to make the gas, but after that, things quickly get complicated.

The problem is that electrolysers are not a single technology but a family of technologies, just like batteries or solar panels, with significant differences depending on the electrolyte used.

Like batteries or solar panels, different electrolysers have different capabilities and different levels of suitability for a given application. For the uninitiated, here is a brief rundown of the leading technology options and what they can do.

ATMOSPHERIC ALKALINE ELECTROLYSIS

Alkaline water electrolysis has been around for many decades and uses a hot (but under 100°C) liquid potassium hydroxide electrolyte to deliver hydrogen at atmospheric pressure.

It is an established technology, used mostly for industrial applications. Because of their widespread use in industry, alkaline electrolysers are reliable and relatively cheap. Importantly, from a scalability and sustainability perspective, they do not rely on rare metals such as iridium and platinum.

However, they have a large footprint and require a stable electricity supply, making them poorly suited for applications powered by variable renewable generation.

PRESSURISED ALKALINE ELECTROLYSIS

Pressurised water alkaline electrolysis takes advantage of the materials, reactions, and long history of alkaline electrolysis, combined with higher temperatures and pressures.

This is achieved by a particular vessel design that increases the pressure of the reaction and at the hydrogen outlet, allowing for a more compact footprint than alkaline electrolysers and a dynamic response suitable for applications related to renewable and intermittent power generation.

Pressurised alkaline water electrolysis does not rely on rare metals such as iridium and platinum.

PROTON EXCHANGE MEMBRANE ELECTROLYSIS

The Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) electrolysis occurs in a cell equipped with a solid polymer electrolyte. Large-scale PEM systems have only been developed in recent years, and little is known about their long-term performance.

The PEM water electrolysis technology can operate at the same temperature, efficiency, and high pressure as pressurised alkaline water electrolysis, allowing for a more compact footprint.

PEM electrolysers require high water purity and extensive use of rare metals, such as platinum and iridium, which could be a bottleneck in mass-scale adoption.

SOLID OXIDE ELECTROLYSIS

The first commercially available solid oxide electrolysers are only now being tested. The technology, which, as its name indicates, has a solid oxide electrolyte, offers very high efficiency thanks to operating temperatures of between 500°C and 900°C.

This heat could be captured for other applications, such as district heating, potentially improving the business case for solid oxide electrolysis.

While solid oxide electrolysis cells have high efficiency, the high operating temperature of the technology leads to rapid degradation of its component materials.

ANION EXCHANGE MEMBRANE

Anion exchange membrane electrolysis has been developed even more recently than solid oxide and is not yet commercially available, with no large-scale systems in operation.

Compared to more mature technologies, it promises to have lower costs, since it does not require rare metals and could potentially be more durable– lower material requirements – due to solid electrolyte/less corrosive electrolyte. The use of a solid electrolyte simplifies liquid separation.

However, anion exchange membranes still need to improve in stability and ionic conductivity before they are a real alternative to other alkaline water electrolysis processes

BOTTOM LINE

The variety of characteristics offered by different electrolyser technologies, along with their cost and state of maturity, can clearly make it hard to choose the right model for a given project. This is even more the case when overall system design is considered.

Pressurised alkaline water electrolysis and PEM are sought after for renewably powered projects because of their dynamic response, while other system setups where there is only limited variability in the power generation might be more favourable for atmospheric alkaline technology.

In other projects, having a system that produces pressurised hydrogen could also be advantageous since the gas needs to be stored and moved under pressure anyway. Pressurising the gas uses energy, which adds to the cost of green hydrogen produced by traditional alkaline electrolysers versus pressurised alkaline electrolysis and PEM.

Meanwhile, pressurised alkaline systems combine the best of traditional alkaline and PEM systems, working with renewables without PEM’s high cost and rare metals requirements. The reality is that the best electrolyser for your project will very much depend on the nature of your specifications and requirements—and the electrolyser is just one of several factors affecting plant economics.

This is why it is important for developers to speak to electrolyser manufacturers and learn about the options before making a choice. The range of electrolyser technologies may seem confusing at first, but it means there is more something for everyone.

As green hydrogen production takes off, demand for electrolysers of all shapes and sizes is set to soar—so it is good news that there are plenty of options for project developers to choose from. •

The grid-saving power of demand response

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Demand response services are vital to reaching Europe’s net-zero goals

To say there has been a surge in EV popularity over the past years is a bit of an understatement. But alongside its many benefits, we know that such a surge comes with its fair share of challenges. In this case, energy usage.

Right now, we are seeing the largest shift in electricity consumption since the invention of air conditioning more than 100 years ago. Naturally, all this additional power demand presents complications—especially during peak usage periods.

Grid stress and peak power demand issues, while nothing especially new, are now being magnified in the face of this growing EV market. Complicating matters is a simultaneous shift toward renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, which brings even more complexities.

Unlike traditional power sources, renewable energy supply is variable, making the task of managing high-demand periods more complex and difficult to predict.

So, we have a complicated junction to navigate—one where user demand, variable energy supply, legislative changes and sustainable intentions are all jostling for position. It is at this junction that demand response offers a potential solution.

STABILISING THE GRID

Demand response is all about balancing supply and demand—with the second of those two words being the most important.

Handling supply and demand in the past has conventionally meant increasing the former to meet the latter, boosting the electricity supply to handle peak needs. But this is a costly and inefficient strategy, and it is how we end up with overinvestment in power plants and other infrastructure that sits idle during off-peak periods.

So, instead of focusing on the supply, demand response programs target the demand side of the equation. They aim to alleviate grid stress and manage peak power demand by incentivizing energy users to adjust their energy loads during high-demand periods.

In the case of EVs, demand response can be leveraged to shift charging to off-peak hours or dynamically adjust consumption based on the grid owner’s demand. This strategy effectively distributes demand, thereby alleviating stress on the grid.

RESPONDING FOR REVENUE

Demand response not only mitigates the stress on the power grid but also circumvents the need for costly upgrades to energy infrastructure. It is a prime example of how emerging technology can solve age-old problems without requiring vast capital investment.

But there is another upside here: new financial opportunities at pretty much every level of the value chain. Charge point operators can generate additional revenue by scaling their usage and being compensated for doing so by suppliers, grid operators and government agencies.

And that money can even be passed on to end users. In the example above—where grid operators and utilities ask users to reduce their electricity usage—demand response can enable charge point operators to offer their customers financial incentives or alternative benefits in return.

A WIN-WIN SOLUTION

It is not often in the energy sector that a genuine win-win innovation enters the fray, but the potential benefits of demand response mean it capably fits that bill.

For grid operators and utilities, demand response offers a cost-effective and efficient solution to manage peak power demand and mitigate grid stress, without the need for prohibitive infrastructure upgrades. For charge point operators in the EV space, it offers the opportunity to generate additional revenue, which can also be passed on to the end user.

But things need to accelerate. To align with the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, we collectively need to ramp up the pace of both policy implementation and technology deployment.

The good news here is that there is notable progress being made. In October 2022, the EU approved a new plan for digitalizing the continent’s energy systems. Demand response readiness—including open access to data and codifying its various procedures—forms a large part of that plan.

STEPPING STONE

But there is still a long way to go. The Net Zero Scenario projects that the market will need to incorporate 500 gigawatts of demand response capacity by 2030, representing a tenfold increase from the deployment levels seen in 2020. This is a lofty aim and things are currently running behind schedule.

The target is possible—we just need to help decision-makers see and unlock the many benefits of the technology.

Ultimately, demand response is more than just a potential energy supply solution; it is a robust stepping stone on our journey toward a more sustainable future.

This future can only come to pass if we work to ensure that renewable energy and EVs coexist without putting undue stress on our power infrastructure. And that coexistence relies on levelling up our energy systems with this new wave of digitally intelligent architecture.

Clearing the runway for SAF takeoff

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The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of FORESIGHT Climate & Energy

The regulatory and incentive frameworks, especially in the US and EU, will be crucial to overcoming barriers and unlocking innovation

The Biden Administration aims to increase the production of SAF through various measures. In September 2021, it launched the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge, which has an aspirational target to ramp up to over 11 million cubic metres (m³) of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) annually by 2030.

Crucially, in August 2022, Congress adopted the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) containing two consecutive tax credit schemes for SAF production. The lower a fuel’s carbon intensity score, the higher the potential credit its producer earns.

At a state level, further incentivisation can be found. The California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (CA-LCFS), established in 2009, was updated in 2019 to recognise SAFs as eligible fuels to generate credits based on their quantified greenhouse gas benefits via lifecycle assessment.

These credits can incentivise SAF production as they can then be sold to other obligated parties under the CA-LCFS. Elsewhere, in January 2023 Illinois state lawmakers approved legislation that creates a $1.50/per gallon SAF tax credit which airlines can use to satisfy all or part of state use tax liabilities.

ETS REFORM

Across the Atlantic, to ensure that the European Union cuts its CO2 emissions by 55% in 2030 (compared with 1990 levels), the European Commission, Parliament, and Council are currently negotiating its “Fit-for-55” legislative package, which has three elements that will significantly impact the decarbonisation of aviation.

The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) covers CO2 emissions from intra-EU flights, with airlines receiving or buying emission allowances for their operations. The ETS incentivises aircraft operators to use SAF by attributing zero emissions to SAF, therefore reducing the number of ETS allowances they need to buy.

The reform of the ETS was finally approved in April 2023. The approved reform brings forth a series of notable highlights that are poised to shape the future of aviation emissions.

One key aspect is the phasing out of free aviation emission allowances, commencing in 2024 and culminating in a complete elimination by 2026. To incentivise the adoption of SAF, the reform reserves an allocation of 20 million free allowances, estimated at €1.6 billion, depending on CO2 prices.

Two other notable provisions introduced are the mandatory disclosure of non-CO2 climate effects by airlines, effective from 2025, and that flights travelling to or from destinations outside the European Economic Area (EEA) will be covered by the United Nation’s CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) framework. Flights to countries not applying CORSIA will also come under the scope of the ETS from 2027.

Next, the Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) has been revised to include rules for producing and accounting for renewable fuels of non-biological origin, such as e-jet fuel.

Finally, the ReFuelEU Aviation deal, struck in April 2023 but still awaiting a formal vote, will legislate for the aviation fuel made available to EU airports should contain 2% SAF, increasing to 6% by 2030, 34% by 2040 and 70% by 2050.

LONG-TERM VISION

The need for clear and long-term legislation to de-risk investment in technology is essential for increasing the production of SAFs as it reduces the perceived risk associated with investing in fresher technology, which may be in the early stages or need to be upscaled.

SAF production technologies are relatively new and investors are cautious about investing in untested technologies due to uncertainties surrounding commercial viability, scalability and regulatory hurdles.

To increase SAF production, there needs to be a significant investment in research and development and private sector investment will play a critical role.

If we consider that refinery lifespans are around 30 years, many incentive programmes—including the recent Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)—end just a few years after a new facility would begin operation. In a world of shifting legal frameworks and production incentives, many innovative technologies have limited opportunities to scale without government guarantees available.

We need to move to a place where policy incentives, offtake agreements and investment horizons match.

POLICY FOCUS

While important to acknowledge and appreciate the leadership shown by the US and EU in providing an increasingly clear regulatory framework overall, more ambitious actions are necessary to ensure the swift and effective implementation of these policies.

Firstly, financial incentives are crucial for de-risking private investments and creating a robust market. This will not only contribute to democratising air travel but also prevent it from becoming a luxury accessible only to a privileged few. In the US, we urge the extension of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) tax credits beyond 2027.

Additionally, the EU should consider increasing the budget of the European Hydrogen Bank to support the production of renewable hydrogen for e-SAF and redirect revenues from the ETS towards price support mechanisms that bridge the gap between SAFs and fossil fuels.

Secondly, there needs to be a focus on the development and adoption of third-generation feedstocks. This can be achieved through increased investment in research and development as well as industrialisation.

In Europe, it is crucial to include SAF technology as a strategic category in the proposed Net Zero Industry Act to unlock key support mechanisms currently unavailable.

Furthermore, expediting the approval process for new ASTM-approved SAF technology pathways is imperative, as the current timeline of 3-6 years for pathway approval exceeds our carbon budget for achieving the 1.5°C target.

Lastly, the challenge of adapting SAF to airport fuel infrastructure at scale within a limited timeframe requires substantial support. Governments must explore concrete policies to aid the aviation industry and facilitate the construction of necessary airport and pipeline infrastructure.

By taking these recommendations into account, we can accelerate the transition toward sustainable aviation and ensure a more environmentally friendly future for the industry.

The latest IPCC report showed that we are not on track with our climate goals—more focus and urgency are needed. This can and must be driven by regulation and incentivisation across industries, and of course when